The $840 Million Signal: Why Quantum Computing Stock Insiders Are Quietly Heading for the Exits

What’s Driving the Quantum Craze in 2025?

The quantum computing narrative has captivated Wall Street with compelling fundamentals. Market analysts project the sector could command a $1 trillion addressable opportunity by 2035. This projection, combined with high-profile partnerships and institutional interest, has triggered explosive stock movements across pure-play quantum firms.

IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS), and Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT) have experienced extraordinary valuations, with some securities climbing as much as 5,400% on a trailing 12-month basis during select periods in 2024 and early 2025. Early investors who positioned themselves in mid-to-late 2024 achieved substantial portfolio gains.

Strategic partnerships have fueled much of this enthusiasm. Amazon’s Braket service and Microsoft’s Quantum Azure now provide access to IonQ and Rigetti hardware for enterprise customers seeking quantum simulation capabilities. D-Wave Quantum collaborated with Classiq to establish a quantum laboratory supporting Comcast in network optimization initiatives. Additionally, JPMorgan Chase identified quantum computing as one of 27 critical sub-sectors within its $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative, signaling potential large-scale institutional capital deployment.

Revenue projections underscore the growth thesis. Rigetti is forecast to expand from under $8 million in 2025 to $152 million by 2029. D-Wave projects growth from approximately $26 million to $219 million across the same timeframe. Such triple-digit annual growth rates have captivated momentum-driven investors.

The Insider Trading Reality Check

Yet beneath the surface enthusiasm lies a troubling contradiction revealed through Securities and Exchange Commission Form 4 filings. Company executives, board members, and substantial shareholders—those with the most intimate knowledge of operational fundamentals—have executed a systematic retreat from their own equity positions.

Over the three-year period through January 9, 2026, insider transactions reveal:

• IonQ: $460.8 million net selling
• Rigetti Computing: $53.5 million net selling
• D-Wave Quantum: $292 million net selling
• Quantum Computing Inc.: $33.2 million net selling

In aggregate, insiders have divested approximately $840 million in stock holdings—a figure that demands scrutiny.

While tax obligations and portfolio rebalancing naturally motivate equity sales, the absence of compensatory insider buying activity tells a distinct story. Form 4 filings show negligible insider purchasing across this quartet. Quantum Computing Inc. and Rigetti registered zero insider acquisitions over the trailing three years. D-Wave recorded just a single 82-share purchase valued at $2,195.

The economic logic is straightforward: executives acquire shares when they anticipate stock appreciation. The near-complete absence of such buying suggests insiders view current valuations as disconnected from fundamental value. This behavioral signal carries more credibility than any commentary, as insiders operate with informational advantages and capital efficiency incentives.

Valuation Concerns and Historical Patterns

Current price-to-sales multiples for these four companies reach levels that historical market precedent struggles to justify. Even applying bullish 2028-2029 revenue forecasts fails to normalize valuations into sustainable territory.

The technology sector’s multi-decade history demonstrates that transformational innovations require extended maturation periods. Quantum computing, while promising theoretical applications, remains years away from practical cost-advantage over classical computing systems. The infrastructure, software ecosystems, and use-case validation necessary for mainstream adoption remain nascent.

The recipe for speculative bubbles—early-stage technologies, explosive valuations, institutional marketing, and insider skepticism—appears unmistakably present. Historical pattern repetition suggests caution may be warranted before committing capital to these securities at their current price levels.