Predictions should never be taken seriously; who really knows if it will happen? If they truly knew, they wouldn't make the following comments:

The probability of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 has exceeded 70%. What is the market worried about?
The weekend sell-off caused Bitcoin's price to briefly dip below the psychological threshold of $75,000, and market sentiment seems to have changed overnight. On the prediction platform Polymarket, a compelling betting game is heating up: the odds of Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 by 2026 have surged to 72%, attracting nearly one million dollars in bets. This is not just a numbers game; it’s a mirror reflecting the deep currents within the crypto market— from the frenzy after Trump’s election victory to the current widespread anxiety over “deep squats,” the speed of change is astonishing.
What’s more, some veteran players are alert to the fact that this decline has put MicroStrategy, the publicly traded company holding the most Bitcoin globally, to its first test since late 2023— breaking through its average cost basis. It’s like a marathon leader suddenly finding the track beneath them becoming slippery.
Why has market sentiment suddenly turned sour?
On the surface, it’s a price correction. But a closer look reveals several forces pulling in the same direction, collectively tugging at the market.
First, there are technical “breakdown” signals. According to some on-chain analysis firms, Bitcoin has been in a “bear market” cycle since falling below its 365-day moving average in November 2025. This long-term moving average is often seen as the “bull-bear dividing line,” and once lost, it tends to trigger systematic de-risking by technical investors. I remember during the 2018 bear market, similar long-cycle moving average breaches led to months of prolonged decline and bottoming processes— early bottom fishing was akin to “catching a flying knife.”
Second, the macro liquidity “tap” seems to be tightening. Some macro analysts point out that the current correction is mainly due to liquidity tightening in the overall US financial environment, rather than any fatal flaw within cryptocurrencies themselves. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the draining effect of Treasury bond issuance—these seemingly distant macro factors are actually transmitted through risk asset pricing logic directly to Bitcoin’s price. When liquidity recedes, the most volatile assets are the first to show it.
Finally, an interesting perspective comes from industry insiders. Mati Greenspan, CEO of Quantum Economics, reminds us that perhaps we’ve been focusing on the wrong point all along. He wrote on social media that Bitcoin’s core design goal is to be a currency independent of the traditional banking system; price appreciation is merely a “side effect,” not its purpose. This viewpoint is like a cold splash of water, prompting us to think: when the market only cares about price rises and falls, has it already deviated from its original vision?
Are prediction markets’ “crystal balls” accurate?
High-probability bets on Polymarket undoubtedly amplify market pessimism. Besides the odds of Bitcoin dropping below $65,000, bets on it falling to $55,000 have reached 61%. Meanwhile, there’s still a 54% chance of it returning to $100,000 before the end of the year. This tug-of-war between bulls and bears precisely illustrates the market’s significant disagreement.
But here’s a key question: does the “probability” in prediction markets equal “facts” in the future? Not necessarily. It more reflects the collective sentiment of market participants voting with real money. This sentiment is highly contagious, capable of self-fulfillment, but can also reverse instantly due to a sudden positive catalyst. Just like the epic bull run after the March 2020 crash, no one could have predicted it at the time. Prediction markets are an excellent window into market sentiment, but not a navigation guide for investment.
Additionally, Polymarket itself faces some regulatory challenges, such as restrictions in Nevada due to licensing issues. This reminds us that this “sentiment barometer” is also in a dynamic environment.
Institutional opinions clash—who should retail investors listen to?
Faced with market confusion, the views of large institutions are also showing interesting “clashes.”
On one hand, bearish sentiment is widespread in prediction markets and among some analysts. On the other hand, just a few months ago, several top institutions issued quite optimistic forecasts. For example, Grayscale Investment predicted Bitcoin could break its all-time high of $126,000 in the first half of 2026, based on ongoing institutional adoption and gradually clarifying regulations. Analysts from Standard Chartered and Bernstein also projected a target of $150,000 in 2026, though they later lowered expectations due to slowing ETF fund inflows.
Such contradictions are not uncommon. The long-term logic of institutions (like Bitcoin’s scarcity and the narrative of digital gold) often conflicts with short-term market volatility (liquidity, sentiment, technical signals). For investors, the key is to distinguish which voice they’re hearing— the long-term trend judgment or the warning about risks in the coming quarters.
What should investors focus on now?
There’s a lot of market noise. I believe it’s better to focus on a few more substantive observation points rather than being led by simple price movement probabilities.
MicroStrategy’s “cost basis” defense: As a market “flagship,” its stock price and cost basis are worth watching. If Bitcoin remains below its average cost, will it shake their long-term holding strategy or influence other listed companies’ follow-up actions? This is an important indicator.
Real macro liquidity data: Instead of guessing, pay attention to actual data like the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the US Treasury General Account (TGA) balance. These are the “driving forces” behind all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
On-chain activity’s “quality” and “quantity”: When prices fall, are long-term holders panic selling or calmly accumulating? On-chain data can tell us whether holdings are dispersing or concentrating. For example, changes in long-term holder supply, exchange inflows and outflows—these indicators are often more forward-looking than price charts.
Is your own investment logic still intact? This is the most important point. Why did you invest in Bitcoin in the first place? Because you believe in its potential as a long-term store of value, or just for short-term speculation? If your long-term reasoning remains unchanged (like global currency issuance exceeding, sovereign credit risks), then market volatility becomes a test of your conviction and an opportunity for better entry points. If you’re just riding the hype, then any fluctuation can make you uneasy.
Markets always swing between excessive optimism and excessive pessimism. When 72% of Polymarket bettors bet on a decline, perhaps it’s time for us to stay calm and think contrarily. After all, in the crypto world, consensus is often very costly, and real opportunities often arise when consensus breaks down. Of course, any judgment should be based on your own situation. The market always contains uncertainties, and good position management and risk control are essential skills to navigate any cycle.