Derivados de Bitcoin em crise: vendedores retomam o controle do mercado, surgem sinais de falta de demanda à vista

【币界】Recent weeks have seen a key turning point in the Bitcoin market landscape. After a period dominated by buyers, sellers have regained control of the derivatives market. More notably, the US spot market has not shown sufficient hedging demand, and these two signals together point in the same direction — the market is entering a risk-averse mode.

Looking at the strength of active buy and sell orders, the most significant change is evident. The flow of active trading has sharply shifted towards sellers, with the active buy-sell imbalance index dropping to -0.0917. More intuitively, the active trading intensity Z-score (90 days) has fallen to -1.81, indicating a sustained market dominated by selling pressure. Compared to a few days ago, when signals were near neutral, the current situation has clearly worsened.

The ratio of bears to bulls also confirms this. The short ratio has reached 0.546, while the long ratio has fallen to 0.454. What does this structure reveal? Sellers are not only passively “holding positions” but are also actively executing market sell orders, which directly amplifies downward price pressure.

In this market structure, how long can a rebound last? As long as the Z-score remains in the negative zone, any rebound appears fragile and weak. Short-term upward fluctuations are mostly just temporary relief rather than a true trend reversal.

When can we see signs of market improvement? First, the index must return to the neutral zone, and the negative imbalance needs to continue narrowing — this is the real signal of improvement.

How is the US spot market performing? The Bitcoin premium index on a major exchange remains negative, around -0.077. This indicates that participants in the US market lack the willingness to buy Bitcoin at prices above the global average. This detail is very important.

In such an environment, derivatives markets may still experience some pulse-like volatility, which can sometimes trigger sharp price swings and short-lived rebounds. But the problem is, if the spot market does not support these movements, they are unlikely to translate into sustained recovery.

It’s important to clarify that the current situation is not a “panic sell-off.” The real danger lies in the disappearance of buying pressure — and it is precisely the demand from buyers that is often used to gauge market health.

So when will genuine improvement occur? It will only happen once the US spot market’s premium index stops being negative and begins to consistently confirm that US spot demand has truly returned. That is the mark of the market emerging from risk aversion.