$BTC July 19 BTC market update analysis Looking back, yesterday the price of BTC stayed firmly in the 639 range all day, oscillating. After the bulls built up momentum, late in the evening they pushed slightly higher and broke out, with the highest touching around 642. In the short term, the bull momentum has released slightly. Today continues yesterday’s rebound rhythm. The price has been climbing all the way; the current price is 648, closely running along the upper Bollinger Band of the hourly chart. In the short term, the bulls appear strong, but the upside space is limited, and there may be a pullback. The four-hour Bollinger Bands are overall opening downward. This rebound is only a corrective move during a downtrend; upward room is constrained, and any rally toward higher levels will likely come with a pullback. Resistance: 650-660 Support: 630-620

#夏日创作营 ‍#BTC Fed positioning in Bitcoin options: $2.5 billion in trades executed Large-scale trades in the options market predicting a rise in Bitcoin to $72,000 by month-end have drawn attention. Positions totaling approximately $2.5 billion are set to expire two days after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this month. Expectations of a price surge among large investors are strengthening as Bitcoin trades around the $64,000 level. Significant option trades executed on Deribit this week indicate that some investors anticipate the Bitcoin price approaching $72,000 by July 31. According to the data, 20,000 Bitcoin call options with a strike price of $70,000 and an expiration date of July 31 were purchased. Simultaneously, 20,000 call options with a strike price of $72,000 and the same expiration date were sold. The total notional value of these trades—where each contract represents 1 BTC—reached approximately $2.5 billion. This transaction corresponds to a bullish strategy known in the options market as a "bull call spread." Investors who anticipate a limited or moderate increase in the underlying asset's price favor this strategy. To profit from a rise above $70,000, the investor buys a call option while selling another call option at the $72,000 level to reduce costs. This limits potential losses should the Bitcoin price remain flat or decline; conversely, it means foregoing additional gains if Bitcoin rises above $72,000. The scale and repetitive nature of these option transactions indicate that positions are being taken primarily by institutional investors rather than individual investors, given the capital required and the precise selection of strike prices. All eyes are on the Fed’s July 29 decision. The timing of the trades is also noteworthy. The options are set to expire on July 31, two days after the Fed’s interest rate decision on July 29. Consequently, these positions are being interpreted as a sign that some major investors expect the Fed meeting to act as a catalyst capable of driving Bitcoin to $72,000. ‍$BTC

1. Today’s Market Overview Bitcoin is currently ranging and consolidating in the $63,500–$64,800 band, with an approximately 1% gain over the past 24 hours. The intraday high is around $64,385 and the low is around $63,312. The market is locked in a stalemate between bulls and bears, with no clear direction. --- $BTC ‌ 2. Today’s Headlines 1. The Iran–U.S. conflict continues to escalate The Iran–U.S. conflict has entered its sixth day. Trump has threatened to attack Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a historic low. Bitcoin is only up modestly by 1%, not rebounding sharply like “digital gold,” putting the safe-haven narrative to the test. 2. BIP 110 consensus vulnerability alert Bitcoin News discloses that Dathon Pwn claims to have found a BIP 110 late-upgrade consensus vulnerability, which could lead to a hidden chain split forming between old and new nodes. 3. $1.2 billion options expire today About $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin options are concentrated to expire today, with the key pain point price at $63,000 and the put/call ratio at 0.9. Derivatives positioning games are suppressing room for a one-way move. 4. On-chain data: dormant whale activity A wallet with no activity for more than 8 years transferred nearly 5,908 BTC. The “age consumption” metric has surged, prompting analysts to issue a high-volatility warning. 5. Liquidation risk · If BTC falls below $61,359, the liquidation strength of aggregated long positions on major CEXs will reach $667 million · If BTC breaks above $67,139, the liquidation strength of aggregated short positions will reach $628 million --- 3. Summary of Bull/Bear Views ⚠️ The following are third-party analysts’ views only and do not constitute investment advice. Contract trading carries extremely high risk—please judge for yourself. 📈 Bullish View Project Reference level Entry $64k – $64,120 Targets $64,350 → $64,650 → $65k → $65,500 Stop loss $63,780 Rationale The bulls have regained control above the SuperTrend. Holding above $64,400 could accelerate a move to $65K+ Another analyst says that if $64K is defended, upside could reach $65,700; if the market can break through the $64,350–$64,750 resistance zone, the target is $65,600. 📉 Bearish View Project Reference level Entry $65,000 – $65,500 Targets $62,000 – $61,500 Rationale The early-session rally touched the upper Bollinger Band at $64,832 and then momentum was exhausted. KDJ turns after becoming overbought, and the need for a short-term pullback is clear. Another view holds that if price falls below $64K, Monday may bring a deeper retracement; if it breaks below $63,000, it could drop to $62,500–$62,000. --- 4. Consolidated Tips The current market is in a low-liquidity weekend phase, and neither bulls nor bears have formed a clear direction. Funding rates are mild (about 0.003–0.004%), and leverage pressure has cooled. $63,000 is the bulls’ last line of defense, while $64,500 is the key resistance level in the near term.