The attacking Pump.fun has a valuation of 4 billion and is issuing coins, but the exhausted market is waiting for a savior.

Written by: Deep Tide TechFlow

The meme is still ongoing, but the market’s enthusiasm seems to have reached its peak.

Although there are memes launching every day, how long has it been since you last saw a new phenomenon-level golden dog compared to last year?

Meme may not be effective, but this seems to have no impact on the steady progress of the Meme launch platform.

On June 4, Blockworks reported that Pump.fun plans to issue tokens to raise $1 billion at a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4 billion, selling approximately 25% of the tokens.

This token issuance is aimed at both public and private investors, and there are rumors of a possible airdrop. The token may be named “$PUMP”, but specific details have yet to emerge.

Although Pump.fun has not officially responded to confirm the authenticity of this token issuance plan, in contrast, the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, Circle, is seeking an IPO in the US stock market, with a publicly disclosed valuation of only 7.2 billion USD.

Currently, the market’s reaction to this news is starting to diverge.

As soon as the news broke, ALON on Pump.fun (named after Pump founder @a1lon_9 )) surged by 102%, and the pure gambling logic is still ongoing.

Some people are optimistic about the money-making ability of Pump.fun, expecting the token to bring dividends or governance rewards; while others scoff at it, believing that the $4 billion valuation is absurd and it is hard to hide the intention of “cutting leeks.”

Fervor and fatigue coexist, opportunities and risks intertwine.

Is this Meme launch pad, which is closest to trading, closest to gambling, and closest to volatility, really a savior for an exhausted market, or the last cut that turns its back without looking?

The answer may be hidden in its valuation logic and market fluctuations.

Is Pump.fun worth 4 billion?

If the token issuance plan disclosed by Blockworks is accurate, the FDV of PUMP is around 4 billion USD. Is it worth that price?

We might be able to use some data to explore the valuation logic.

Public data shows that as of May this year, Pump.fun’s annual revenue totaled 296 million. If estimated under the same conditions, the annualized income is about 710 million (296 million ÷ 5 × 12).

According to this income situation, from the perspective of traditional valuation methods, the price-to-sales ratio (P/S, valuation of 4 billion divided by annual income) is 5.63, meaning the market pays $5.63 for every dollar of revenue, which is commonly used in traditional markets to measure growth potential, and the figures for DeFi projects like Uniswap are also similar.

If the PUMP token has income distribution rights, assuming the token can share half of the income (350 million), the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E, valuation divided by profit) is approximately 11.4, which is lower than the average level of U.S. tech stocks.

The problem is that Meme-related businesses don’t really conform to traditional valuation methods. The valuation of a Meme launchpad is certainly related to revenue, but FOMO and changes in market sentiment are even more significant.

Circle has a stable and compliant USDC business, with an IPO valuation of 7.2 billion USD; however, Pump.fun, with a valuation of 4 billion, corresponds to the top meme launchpad in the industry, exceeding more than half of Circle’s valuation, which seems a bit unreasonable.

Moreover, the income from Pump.fun is not very stable. At its worst, the daily income is only around 110,000 US dollars.

From the moment of breaking 100 million in monthly revenue in November 2024, to the highlight of daily revenue reaching 14 million on January 2, 2025, and then to the low of 110,700 in daily revenue on March 9 this year… the income of this platform has fluctuated nearly a hundredfold, highlighting the cyclicality of the Meme market.

The income low in March 2025 is actually a reflection of the evaporation of market value in the Meme sector and the waning of enthusiasm; businesses driven by sentiment have fragile revenues.

However, even so, the platform is never short of supply. Pump.fun sees an average of 30,000 new tokens pouring in daily, accounting for half of the trading volume on Solana DEX.

The continuous launch of this token and the fluctuating market sentiment create a stark contrast, making it difficult to find a stable anchor for its valuation.

The exhausted market, the final cut?

Pump.fun is still making strides. Whether it’s the rumors of issuing tokens or the previous attempts to create its own AMM and innovate live streaming features, it’s clear that the platform itself has not stagnated.

(See details: Meme Retreat, Pump.fun Self-Rescue: Can PumpSwap Support Future Business?)

But the entire market, especially the Meme market, seems to be a bit powerless.

The market “exhaustion” has begun to show signs. In December 2024, the overall market value of Memes fell from 137 billion to 96 billion, evaporating 40 billion.

In 2025, the trading volume of Solana DEX shrank by 20% compared to last year, most new tokens quickly returned to zero, their lifespans further shortened, and PVP has become hellishly difficult.

Occasionally, there are golden dogs supporting the scene, but it is difficult to restore the grandeur of the past.

Retail investors have shifted from a frenzy of chasing gains to a wait-and-see approach, and community discussions are filled with fatigue. The market is craving a new narrative—AI’s next wave, stablecoins, publicly traded companies’ crypto asset reserves… rather than the high-stakes bets on old platforms.

At the same time, the past of Pump.fun raises eyebrows. In 2024, the platform has repeatedly sold the SOL it earned for USDC; and data from January also shows that Pump.fun has sold approximately $182 million worth of SOL tokens since January of this year.

Earn SOL, siphon off liquidity; sell SOL, how much it affects price and confidence.

The community currently holds a generally skeptical attitude towards Pump token issuance. For example, researcher Haotian believes: “It is hard to imagine that a MEME launch platform is valued higher than most DeFi blue-chip protocols. This may be a sign of the MEME economy maturing, but it could also be a signal of the industry’s value system collapsing.”

After raising funds, what exactly will Pump.fun do, and can it bring a substantial gameplay upgrade to the Meme market?

Based on the current information, the answer seems to be negative; not to mention that various launch pads actually emerged last month, all challenging the position of the former launch pad leader in their own way.

The last big brother, or the last cut?

It’s best to be cautious before the answer is revealed.