Next week, the US CPI data will be released, and the market's expectations for interest rate cuts will face a test.

The important macro data release nodes for next week are as follows: At 22:00 on Monday, the monthly rate of wholesale sales in the United States in April; At 23:00 on Monday, the 1-year inflation expectations of the New York Fed in May; Wednesday 20:30, US CPI data for May; At 22:30 on Wednesday, EIA crude oil inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories in the United States for the week to June 6; At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week to June 7, and the PPI in May in the United States; At 22:00 on Friday, the preliminary value of the one-year inflation rate in the United States in June and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in June. Next Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report for May will test the market’s optimism about a rate cut, as it could show a halt in the near-term downward trend in inflation. According to the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model, headline CPI is expected to increase by 2.4% year-on-year in May, up from 2.3% in the previous month. Core CPI is expected to rise 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. Analysts expect three-month annualized inflation in core goods to peak (4%-5%) early this fall, slightly lower and delayed than forecast before the “reciprocal tariffs” were suspended on May 8.