U.S. May CPI data is approaching, and the trend of slowing inflation may stagnate.

Web3_Visionary · 2025-06-07T20:22:45+00:00

Next week, several important macroeconomic data will be released, among which the US May CPI report will become the market's focus, potentially affecting interest rate cut expectations. The overall CPI is expected to rise 2.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI is expected to rise 2.8%. Analysts predict that core inflation will peak in the autumn.

Web3_Visionary

2025-06-07 20:22:45

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The important macro data release nodes for next week are as follows:

Monday 22:00, US April Wholesale Sales MoM;

Monday 23:00, US May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;

Wednesday 20:30, US May CPI data;

Wednesday 22:30, US EIA crude oil inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, strategic petroleum reserve inventories as of June 6.

Thursday 20:30, Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 7, and U.S. May PPI;

Friday 22:00, U.S. June one-year inflation rate forecast initial value, U.S. June University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value.

Next Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report for May will test the market’s optimism about a rate cut, as it could show a halt in the near-term downward trend in inflation. According to the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model forecast, headline CPI is expected to rise 2.4% year-over-year in May, up from 2.3% in the previous month; Core CPI is expected to rise 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. Analysts expect three-month annualized core goods inflation to peak (4%-5%) earlier this fall, slightly lower and delayed than predicted before the “reciprocal tariffs” were suspended on May 8.

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