The US CPI data for May is about to be released, and the inflation trend may stagnate.

Web3_Visionary · 2025-06-07T23:22:41+00:00

Next week, several important macroeconomic data from the United States will be released, including April wholesale sales and May CPI. In particular, the May CPI data may affect the market's expectations for interest rate cuts, with the overall CPI expected to rise by 2.4% year-on-year. The core CPI is expected to remain flat at 2.8%. Analysts believe that core goods inflation may peak this autumn.

Web3_Visionary

2025-06-07 23:22:41

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The important macro data release nodes for next week are as follows: Monday 22:00, U.S. April Wholesale Sales MoM; Monday 23:00, U.S. May New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations; Wednesday 20:30, U.S. May CPI data; Wednesday 22:30, U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Cushing Crude Oil Inventories, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories as of June 6; Thursday 20:30, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 7, U.S. May PPI; Friday 22:00, U.S. June 1-Year Inflation Rate Forecast Initial Value, U.S. June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Initial Value.

The U.S. CPI report for May, which will be released next Wednesday, will test the market’s optimistic sentiment regarding interest rate cuts, as it may show a stagnation in the recent trend of declining inflation. According to the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model, the overall CPI for May is expected to increase by 2.4% year-on-year, up from 2.3% last month; the core CPI is expected to increase by 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from last month. Analysts expect the annualized inflation rate of core goods to peak in the early fall (4%-5%), slightly lower and delayed compared to the forecasts before the “equal tariff” suspension on May 8.

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