Unveiling the Pi coin Cycle Top Indicator: A Key Tool for Predicting Bull-Bear Turning Points

In the field of cryptocurrency investment, accurately identifying market tops is the ultimate pursuit of every trader. The Pi Cycle Top indicator is a widely validated on-chain analysis tool based on mathematical rules and historical data.

##Core Principle: The π Law Crossover of Moving Averages

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator predicts market tops by comparing the positional relationship of two specific moving averages:

• 111-day Simple Moving Average (111DMA): Reflects the short-term price trend of Bitcoin
• Twice the 350-day moving average (350DMA × 2): Represents the accelerated state of the long-term trend.

When the 111DMA crosses upward through the 350DMA × 2 from below, it triggers a top signal, indicating that the market is in an overheated state and may face a significant pullback. The mathematical basis for this design lies in the ratio of 350 to 111 (350 ÷ 111 ≈ 3.153), which is very close to the value of π (3.14159), hence it is named the “Pi Cycle” indicator.

##Historical Verification: Three Accurate Captures of Major Peaks

The core value of this indicator lies in its superior historical accuracy:

• 2013 cycle top: The crossover point roughly coincides with the peak of $11,663.
• 2017 Cycle Top: Successfully warned of the historical high point of $19,666.
• 2021 Cycle Top: Signaled before the $69,000 inflection point

Even more astonishing is that these signals triggered within three days before and after the actual market top, providing investors with a valuable opportunity to exit.

##Current Cycle Forecast and Key Variables

According to the latest data, there is still a significant distance between the current 111DMA and 350DMA × 2. If we extrapolate based on historical patterns, the next crossover point may occur around October 2025. However, this cycle exhibits particularity due to the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF:

• Bitcoin has exceeded its previous high ($69,000) about 8 months ahead of the halving in 2024.
• Institutional funds influx may change the market structure, the expected price level of 350DMA × 2 has risen to $126,000, and some analysts even believe the crossover point may correspond to a high of $400,000.

Application Strategies and Considerations

Although the Pi cycle top indicator performs well, it should be combined with other indicators for a comprehensive assessment:

1. MVRV Z-Score: When the value > 5, it strengthens the top risk.
2. Volume Divergence: A price increase accompanied by a decrease in trading volume indicates a depletion of momentum.
3. Exchange inflow: The surge in the number of whale addresses transferring to exchanges suggests selling pressure.

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator, with its rigorous mathematical logic and outstanding empirical performance, has become a golden tool for identifying strategic exit points in crypto asset allocation. However, the market is always evolving. In the new era where ETFs reshape the capital landscape, maintaining flexibility in the application of indicators is essential to remain invincible amid bull and bear transitions.

Author: Blog Team *This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or advice. You should always seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions. *Please note that Gate may restrict or prohibit all or part of its services from restricted areas. Please read the user agreement for more information, link: