The current situation in the Middle East is turbulent, leading to an upward trend in international oil prices. However, interestingly, the financial market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in September remain strong, with the probability still at around 55%.



This phenomenon indicates that investors generally believe that the recent rise in oil prices caused by the political crisis in the Middle East may not be sustainable in the long term, until they see the consumer price index (CPI) data being significantly affected.

In other words, the financial market seems to judge that the substantial impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation will not be significantly reflected before September. This judgment may affect investment strategies and economic policy directions in the coming months.
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