BTC October 8 Market Analysis #BTC再创新高

1. Trend Analysis

· Strong bullish pattern: Prices are above all EMAs, and the EMAs are in perfect bullish alignment.
· Key level battle: The current price of 122,918 is almost coinciding with the EMA5 at 122,935, testing short-term support.
· Overall trend is healthy: rising from a low of 74,460 to 124,950, an increase of about 67%, the trend remains strong.

2. Moving Average System Analysis

· Bullish alignment complete: EMA5 > EMA10 > EMA30 > EMA72 > EMA180
· Support levels are clear:
· Strong support 1: 122,935 (EMA5)
· Strong support 2: 120,457 (EMA10)
· Strong support 3: 116,897 (EMA30)
· Moving average distance: the short-term EMA is close to the price, indicating a consolidation phase within the trend.

3. MACD Indicator Analysis

· DEA value is relatively large: DEA is 1,629.8. Although the specific MACD and DIF are not displayed, a positive DEA indicates that the overall trend remains bullish.
· Need to pay attention to momentum: It is necessary to confirm whether the MACD has shown signs of a top divergence or momentum decay.

4. Volume Analysis - Major Risk Signals

· Significant divergence between volume and price: The current trading volume of 3.41 billion is far lower than the 5-day average of 19.2 billion and the 10-day average of 19.794 billion.
· Buying pressure weakened: Prices are rising but trading volume is shrinking, indicating a decrease in market participation.
· Need to be vigilant: If the volume continues to decrease, the risk of a pullback will increase.

Trend prediction

Most Likely Scenario (50% Probability): High-Level Consolidation

1. Reason: Divergence between volume and price + Resistance from previous highs + Testing of EMA5 key support
2. Fluctuation range: 120,450 - 124,950
3. Characteristics: Oscillating and digesting below the resistance level, waiting for a direction choice.

Possible scenario (30% probability): Break through the previous high and continue to rise.

1. Condition: Break through 124,950 with volume and hold steady.
2. Goal: Open up new upward space
3. Requirement: The trading volume must increase above the average volume.

Retracement Scenario (20% Probability): Technical Retracement

1. Trigger condition: Break below EMA5 support at 122,935
2. Callback target:
· First target: 120,457 (EMA10)
· Second target: 116,897 (EMA30)
3. Nature Judgment: As long as it does not fall below 116,897, it is still a healthy pullback.

Trading suggestions

For long holders:

· You can continue to hold, but it is recommended to reduce your position appropriately in the range of 123,000-124,000.
· Set stop loss below 120,400
Consider replenishing when breaking 124,950 with increased volume.

For short sellers/wait-and-see investors:

· Short selling at the current position is not recommended.
· Wait for a pullback to the support area of 120,450-118,000 to accumulate positions in batches.
· Or wait for a breakout above 124,950 to go long.

Key Focus on Risk Control:

· Key observation points:
· Is the support at 122,935 effective?
· Can the trading volume return to normal levels?
· Breakthrough of resistance at 124,950
· Long Stop Loss: Below 120,400
· Short Stop Loss: Breakthrough 125,200

Risk Warning

1. The divergence between the weight and price is the biggest risk currently, and it requires high vigilance.
2. There is strong psychological resistance near the previous high pressure of 124,950.
3. The overall increase is significant, and there is a demand for technical correction.
4. It is recommended to operate with a light position, strictly set stop-loss, and control risks.

Summary: BTC is currently in a high-level consolidation phase within a strong bullish trend, facing a dual test of previous high resistance and a divergence in volume and price. In the short term, it may fluctuate within the range of 120,450-124,950. It is advised to be cautious in chasing higher prices and wait for a pullback to support levels or confirmation of a breakout before taking action. Keep a close eye on changes in trading volume and the defense situation at key price levels.