#BigTokenUnlocksAhead |

My Market Breakdown & Insights

The coming week is shaping up to be one of the most crucial for altcoin traders, as multiple high-value token unlock events could spark renewed volatility across the market. Three names stand out in particular LayerZero’s ZRO, Plasma’s XPL, and MultiBank Group’s MBG each unlocking sizable portions of their supply that could temporarily shake liquidity, sentiment, and short-term price dynamics.

These events are being closely tracked by institutions, traders, and analytics firms alike because token unlocks often act as market catalysts either triggering sell-offs if supply overwhelms demand, or showcasing strength if the ecosystem absorbs the impact smoothly.

LayerZero (ZRO) The Main Event

Expected Unlock: Around October 20, 2025
Value: ≈ $44 million
Tokens Unlocking: ~25.7 million ZRO (~7.9% of supply)

The biggest spotlight falls on LayerZero’s ZRO, the most visible cross-chain interoperability project in the market. The scheduled unlock will release $44 million worth of ZRO tokens, representing 7.9% of the circulating supply a significant event for a token of its size and visibility.

ZRO’s tokenomics and liquidity profile make this unlock particularly influential. Historically, LayerZero has maintained strong investor confidence due to its ecosystem growth, developer adoption, and multi-chain presence, but this unlock could test that stability.

If prices hold steady or rebound quickly post-unlock, it would confirm that the market views ZRO’s dip as an accumulation opportunity a sign of long-term bullish conviction. However, a sudden wave of sell pressure could briefly shake market confidence across DeFi tokens, particularly those tied to infrastructure and cross-chain ecosystems.

Plasma (XPL) The Silent Heavyweight

Expected Unlock: Around October 25, 2025
Value: ≈ $36–37 million
Tokens Unlocking: ~88.9 million XPL (~5% of supply)

Plasma’s XPL has a massive unlock in token count, but its market impact may be more nuanced. Despite the large volume, it represents only about 5% of circulating supply — which might reduce the intensity of the sell pressure compared to ZRO.

Still, the timing is key. Multiple unlocks occurring within the same week can amplify overall market volatility, especially among mid-cap altcoins. If traders start rotating liquidity or hedging positions simultaneously across these assets, it can create correlated downside pressure, even for unrelated tokens.

XPL’s reaction could quietly shape sentiment across the Layer-2 and infrastructure narrative, especially if its trading pairs show sustained resilience amid the unlock.

MultiBank Group Token (MBG) The High-Risk Outlier

Expected Unlock: Around October 22, 2025
Value: ≈ $17 million
Tokens Unlocking: ~15.8 million MBG (~12% of supply)

MBG’s unlock may be smaller in value but far larger in proportion with 12% of its circulating supply set to enter the market. This makes MBG the most volatile candidate among the three.

Because MBG typically trades with lower liquidity and thinner order books, even moderate selling could cause abrupt swings. For traders, this creates potential short-term opportunities, but also higher risk of sharp corrections.

If MBG manages to hold steady after its unlock, it would signal strong community support and possibly attract speculative inflows looking for early momentum plays.

Macro Take Interpreting the Combined Impact

The combined scale of these unlocks suggests next week could bring a short-term shake-up followed by a test of market maturity. The way prices react to these events will likely serve as a litmus test for investor sentiment heading into late October.

A calm and controlled reaction particularly to ZRO’s unlock would demonstrate that the market has absorbed supply risk effectively, reinforcing confidence across mid-cap altcoins. On the other hand, aggressive sell pressure or cascading liquidations could trigger temporary corrections, offering disciplined traders a new round of discounted entries.

What I’ll Be Watching Closely

Funding Rates: A sudden rise in positive funding could indicate over-optimism — often a short-term sell signal.
Exchange Inflows: Increasing token deposits ahead of the unlocks may hint at planned sales or hedging activity.
Price Stabilization Before Unlocks: If prices flatten or dip slightly before the events, it might suggest that the market has already priced in much of the risk.
Post-Unlock Rebounds: Quick recoveries after the events often attract fresh capital and confirm confidence.

My Personal View

In my opinion, this upcoming week is not one to fear but to observe smartly. Unlocks don’t automatically mean dumps; rather, they reveal how strong the underlying community and investor base truly are.

I see ZRO’s $44M unlock as the headline story, the one likely to set the tone for market psychology. If ZRO holds strong, it will likely fuel bullish sentiment across DeFi and infrastructure tokens heading into November. Meanwhile, XPL and MBG may show how smaller ecosystems handle supply shocks their responses will provide valuable insights for traders looking at mid-cap opportunities.

For now, my stance is “watchful optimism” staying alert for volatility spikes but recognizing that resilience during unlocks often marks the start of the next bullish leg.
Bottom Line:
Next week’s unlocks will test liquidity, patience, and conviction. How ZRO, XPL, and MBG handle this phase will shape the market narrative for weeks to come. I’ll be watching how fast the market digests these releases because in crypto, what happens after the unlock often matters more than the unlock itself.