Morning Analysis: The Logic of Interest Rate Cuts and Subsequent Falls, and Future Strategies

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the cryptocurrency market fell instead of rising, with the core issue being the "expectation gap". The specific logic and response are as follows:

1. Core Policies and Differences

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, ended the balance sheet reduction in December, but the vote showed rare dissent (two members opposed), signaling uncertainty in the policy outlook.

2. The key to turning positive into negative.

1. Buy expectations and sell facts: The market has already priced in the favorable interest rate cut in advance, and after the news is announced, funds have taken profits.
2. Policy uncertainty triggers hedging: Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve expose contradictions in economic judgments, making the market more uneasy than a clear hawkish stance;
3. Suppressing inflation easing expectations: The statement emphasizes that inflation is above the target, the future interest rate cut path is constrained, and the logic of easing pushing up is invalid.

3. The Impact of Different Assets

BTC: Short-term fluctuations, acting as the market "anchor", need to pay attention to the core support level;
Mainstream coins: Volatility greater than Bitcoin, tend to fall but not rise, weak rebounds, and the pullback may be deeper.
Altcoins: Highest risk, lack of fundamental support, may face sell-offs leading to liquidity crises.

4. Coping Strategies

1. Be cautious in chasing rebounds and maintain a wait-and-see approach: The trend is unclear, and blindly chasing highs can lead to passivity;
2. Manage your position and reserve funds: Wait for the market to stabilize before gradually allocating.
3. Using Bitcoin as a barometer: If the core support is not broken, systemic risk is controllable; otherwise, comprehensive defense is needed.
4. Keep a close eye on macro data: Inflation and non-farm data will affect Federal Reserve policy and determine medium- to long-term trends.

Summary: Current risk control takes precedence over short-term gains, testing patience and discipline; only by safeguarding the fundamentals can one seize future opportunities.

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