1. Market Overview According to the latest K-line data, the current price of ETH is 3430.53 USDT, which is the closing price of the recent one-hour K-line, reflecting that the current price has significantly retraced from 3577.41 two days ago. The ETH price has a wide fluctuation range over the past 14 days, peaking at 3658.98 and dipping to a low of 3057. Recently, volatility has increased, especially after a sharp decline three days ago, with the price gradually hitting the bottom and rebounding during the day. In terms of trading volume, the overall activity has noticeably decreased in the past two days, with the latest 24-hour daily trading volume at 24219.2, significantly lower than the peak values of the previous days (for example, it reached as high as 825716 on the day of the massive decline), indicating a heightened wait-and-see sentiment among short-term bulls and bears. Regarding market sentiment, the latest analyst opinions lean towards a short-term bearish outlook, but some viewpoints suggest a test of key support levels, with noticeable divergence among investors. 2. Technical Analysis From the 14-day daily K-line data, ETH shows a clear trend of high-level oscillation downward. The high point in the last 14 days is 3658.98, and the low point is 3057. After a continuous significant retracement, the price has recently fluctuated within the range of 3400 to 3450, where there was intense competition between bulls and bears earlier. In the 48-hour hourly K-line, the ETH price has slid from 3577.41 to the current 3430.53, breaking below some key support levels. The fluctuation has narrowed in the last 10 hours, with closing prices hovering between 3412 and 3430, showing a short-term stalemate. In terms of volume analysis, the trading volume has decreased alongside the price drop, indicating possible signs of slowing down in the downward trend, but short-term reversal signals are still insufficient. According to historical K-line data, important short-term support is concentrated in the range of 3410-3420, where previous touches led to signs of price stabilization. If this level fails to hold, there is a risk of retracing to the previous low of 3371.65 or even close to 3057. The upper resistance zone is in the range of 3455-3480; if the rebound cannot effectively break through this area, the price may continue to maintain a weak trend. The overall short-term trend is bearish, and further declines need to be monitored after the support is lost. 3. News and Policy Interpretation Recent market news has significantly affected ETH's recent price movements. The announcement by Bitmine regarding a major upgrade plan for ETH attracted market attention around the period of the major drop (see news, "Ethereum Major Upgrade Plan to Take Place in December," reported by UToday), but it did not directly lead to sustained price increases in the short term; instead, there was a subsequent large-scale sell-off. Institutions and large holders have recently adjusted their positions through on-chain operations (such as "Taylor Gerring-related address receiving 4544 ETH" and "whales/institutions un-staking 9026 ETH"), which has created fluctuations in market sentiment. Combined with the K-line performance, this indicates that investors are taking a wait-and-see and cautious approach towards the upcoming upgrades. On the macro policy level, there have been no new regulatory changes or positive/negative policies introduced in the latest 24 hours. The overall policy environment remains stable, having limited impact on short-term technical trends. 4. Analyst Opinions The overall integration of analyst opinions reflects a cautious bearish sentiment in the short term. "Three Horse Members" pointed out: "Short ETH/USDT 100x with 3% margin, levels: 1. Near 3430 with a 3% take profit target at 1,3388 while ensuring 70% profit at break-even 2. Stop loss at 3218: 3480 hard stop loss" - This strategy fully reflects the analysts' short bearish view on the 3430 level, and combined with the current K-line actual performance, ETH is gradually approaching the first take profit target range of this strategy. Another analyst reminded: "Today's daily line close for ETH looks very unappealing, confirming a rejection of pyVAH, indicating a shift in ETH's price movement, making it unlikely to run above pyVAH, so the next step is likely to test pyPOC again." This analysis also aligns with the weak downward trend of the K-line, reflecting an increasing expectation in the market for a breakdown of support. Some analysts have given a turnover level at "3450," which has now been broken by the market, indicating that the mainstream viewpoint remains cautiously bearish, and the actual market has also validated some predictions. 5. Future Trend Predictions and Trading Suggestions Considering the current weak K-line structure and analyst opinions, ETH is still under downward pressure in the short term. Key support is located at 3410-3420; if this position is effectively breached, the price may continue to seek a bottom, probing down to 3371 or even lower to 3057. The resistance above is situated at 3455-3480 and 3500-3520; if it cannot regain a foothold above 3500, reversal signals will be insufficient. Trading suggestions: it is not advisable to blindly chase long positions in the current market. Short-term trading may refer to the analysts' settings: if the price briefly rebounds to the 3430-3450 area, gradually setting short positions with light volume is advised, with profit targets set at around 3388 and 3218, while stop losses must be strictly controlled above 3480. Conservative investors are advised to wait and observe until a new direction is confirmed before entering the market. 6. Risk Warning K-line data shows that ETH's recent volatility has significantly increased, with daily amplitude and trading volume changing drastically, leading to a substantial rise in short-term risks. Losing key support areas may trigger a new round of declines, and repeatedly testing support may easily result in "false breakouts" that lure in excessive longs and shorts. It is essential to strictly enforce stop losses during operations, assess the main direction based on actual trading volume, and avoid chasing highs and selling lows. Overall, the current phase should focus on defense, closely monitoring changes in K-line structure and volume coordination, cautiously controlling positions to avoid risks from short-term exceptional volatility.