#加密市场观察

1. Overall Market Dynamics Due to economic uncertainties, the cryptocurrency market has generally experienced sell-offs. Bitcoin has dropped over 3.5% within 24 hours, briefly falling below $98,000; Ethereum's decline is even more pronounced, exceeding 7%.
2. Derivatives Market The drastic price fluctuations have led to a large number of leveraged traders being forcibly liquidated. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network was approximately $661 million, with bullish long positions dominating the liquidations (about $533 million).
3. Macroeconomic Environment The U.S. government has restarted after a 43-day shutdown, but the release of key economic data in the future (such as inflation and employment reports) remains uncertain, which may affect the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy. The market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have decreased, from 68% last week to about 52%.

4. Industry Trends - JPMorgan expressed the view that at current levels, Bitcoin's "downside potential is very limited." - The Czech central bank has purchased cryptocurrency for the first time, indicating traditional financial institutions' interest in the sector.
5. In-depth interpretation of hot topics
· Why the market is falling: The current core pressure on the market comes from the macroeconomic level. The U.S. government has restarted after a long shutdown, but the schedule for releasing key economic data remains unclear. This uncertainty makes it difficult for investors to gauge the Federal Reserve's next move, leading to heightened risk aversion in the market and causing risk assets to come under pressure.
· What does the liquidation data indicate: The massive liquidation data (especially the long liquidations) indicates that a significant number of investors had bet on the market rising and used high leverage. The rapid decline in prices triggered a chain of forced liquidations, further exacerbating the downward momentum of the market, which is characteristic of a typical "long liquidation" scenario.
· Signals of institutional trends: Despite the short-term weakness in the market, comments on cryptocurrency prices from institutions like JPMorgan and the purchasing actions of the Czech central bank reflect that some mainstream financial institutions continue to pay attention to the long-term value of cryptocurrencies.