1. Market Overview

The current BTC market is undergoing a deep adjustment. According to K-line data, the latest closing price of BTC is $97,529.5, which has significantly retreated from the high of $111,646 two weeks ago. Over the past two days, the price once fell below $98,000 and $97,000, with a short-term low of $96,887.8. In the past 14 days, the overall price has shown a step-down decline, with weak rebounds and a gradually lower volatility range. During the same period, the trading volume has also increased, especially during the sharp decline, where selling pressure has continued to be released, with the latest single-day trading volume reaching 4,798.68 BTC. The market environment shows a combination of panic and caution. News mentions a new round of declines in the Asian morning, with BTC "first breaking below $98,000", leading to the liquidation of up to $880 million in long positions, and mainstream cryptocurrencies generally declining. Some reports point out that BTC's "sentiment is the worst since March," with the fear and greed index showing extreme fear, significantly impacting investor confidence. However, there are also news reports of institutions heavily buying BTC, indicating some capital still has confidence in its long-term value.

2. Technical Analysis
From the analysis of the daily K-line and 48-hour hourly K-line over the past 14 days, the BTC trend has continuously retreated from high positions, with weak rebounds in the short cycle, breaking important support levels. The highest price in 14 days was $116,400, while the lowest dropped to $96,887.8, indicating that the market's downward space is continuously opening up. The recent resistance range is between $104,200—$105,333 (which has repeatedly become the intraday high), while the main support level has moved down to $98,000 and $97,000, with $96,887.8 being the current low point of the wave. In the hourly cycle, the price has gradually retreated from around $102,873, repeatedly testing and breaking below low points like $99,260 and $98,600. The trading volume in the latest few hours has not significantly increased, indicating a slight weakening of the selling pressure, but no large-scale rebound signal has yet appeared. The trading volume has clearly expanded during the recent decline. For example, when the price fell below $98,000, the hourly trading volume frequently exceeded 1,000 BTC, reflecting panic selling. However, the short-term low trading volume has begun to shrink, indicating a temporary wait-and-see approach and a phase of stop-loss exits. Support references: $97,188, $96,887.8; Resistance references: $99,188, $104,200—$105,333.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
Recent mainstream news focuses on the rapid decline in BTC prices, including "BTC breaking below $98,000, with a 24-hour decline of 4.9%" and the liquidation of $880 million in long positions in the Asian market, which exerts pressure on market confidence. Additionally, news from Anchorage Digital indicates that 4,094 BTC were received within 9 hours, showing that some institutional funds are accumulating against the trend, and the logic of long-term value is still recognized. Market news believes that the main reasons for the decline include the Federal Reserve's tough statements leading to a drop in market expectations for interest rate cuts, a global decline in risk assets, and mining companies like Bitfarms announcing their exit from BTC mining, strengthening industry adjustment expectations. No new regulatory dynamics have emerged from the policy side, and official policies remain stable without significant sudden impacts. The news and K-line performance are highly consistent: after the news release, BTC repeatedly broke through key thresholds, releasing panic selling pressure, consistent with the actual market trend.

4. Analysts' Views
Analysts clearly pointed out: "BTC has no breakthrough at $104,500" and "support at $99,188", repeatedly emphasizing key pressure and support areas. Another analysis suggested: "BTC market price around $99,200, go long, half position", indicating that some bullish funds are attempting to buy at low levels. There are also views stating, "BTC breaks below 365 Rolling, on-chain whales continue to buy," and cautioning that during the decline, bullish operations should be contained, waiting for opportunities after a major panic. These views are largely consistent with the actual trend, as BTC has failed to stabilize above $104,500, and each rebound has been met with resistance and a pullback, with the support level at $99,188 being key, although the actual low has dropped to $96,887.8, which is below what most analysts had anticipated. The analysts' judgment of a downward fluctuation and a bearish dominance also aligns with the K-line trend.

5. Future Trend Forecast and Operating Suggestions
Combining the daily/hourly K-line structure and trading volume trends, BTC is expected to continue to be range-bound with a weak consolidation in the near term. Currently, short-term rebounds are clearly obstructed; if it cannot rise back to $99,188 (the support conversion point confirmed by analysts and K-line) and the $104,200 area, the weak pattern is difficult to change. In the future, if $96,887.8 is lost, it may test lower support ranges, and caution should be exercised regarding panic selling. If it can receive continuous capital support around $97,000 and the trading volume moderately expands, a significant rebound may be expected, with the first target still being the range of $99,000—$100,000, and the high point pressure being $105,000. Operating suggestions: Aggressive traders may try to gamble on a rebound near $97,000 with small positions, but must strictly set stop losses and decisively exit if it falls below $96,800; conservative traders should patiently wait for a volume increase and a stop-loss structure along with effective reversal signals, and consider entering after a breakthrough of $99,188. Overall, it is advisable to maintain light positions, quick entry and exit, and avoid blind bottom fishing.

6. Risk Warning
The current BTC volatility is intensifying, with short-term declines expanding and a strong atmosphere of market panic. According to K-line data, the maximum decline in the past 48 hours has exceeded 5%, and the lower support has been tested multiple times, with weak rebound sustainability. Investors need to strictly control their positions and execute stop losses, being cautious of further panic risks. If $96,887.8 is lost, one must guard against the deterioration of market sentiment and the continued release of panic selling, avoiding blind chasing of highs or lows. Overall, BTC shows weak upward momentum in the short term, and the bearish dominance pattern remains unchanged, suggesting continued close monitoring of the effectiveness of the $97,000 area support, and deciding on operational strategies based on trading volume and rebound performance.