XRP is really a bit precarious this time. On Monday, it directly fell below the $2 key support, and has been falling for 5 consecutive days, which is the longest consecutive decline in a month. Since the high at the beginning of the year, it has already experienced a big dump of over 40%.

The problems lie in three areas: First, the SEC delayed the decision on the Franklin Templeton XRP ETF last week, saying it needs to study it further (although Polymarket shows that the probability of approval by the end of the year is still over 80%); second, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has dragged down the entire crypto market, with BTC adjusting and altcoins suffering as a result; third, XRP is becoming increasingly marginalized in the DeFi ecosystem, with on-chain locked amounts plummeting by 12.5% in 30 days to $54.2 million, while the supply of stablecoins is only $71 million, which is even less than the new public chains Sonic and Berachain.

The technical aspects are even more heartbreaking. XRP is currently in a descending triangle pattern, which is a typical bearish continuation signal. If it breaks through the support, the target could drop to around $1.08, and it really could break below $1. However, if it rebounds back above $2.20, this pessimistic expectation would be invalidated.