2024 Bitcoin Halving: Miner Showdown, Investor Frenzy, Market Reshuffle

Halving is not just a technical event—it’s a watershed moment in the market cycle.

Halving Countdown Begins: Time Cost Starts Ticking

The fourth Bitcoin halving in April 2024 is approaching. At that moment, the block reward will be slashed from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC—cutting miners’ income in half instantly.

This is an event that occurs every four years in Bitcoin’s history. Since its inception in 2009, mining rewards have already been halved three times:

• 2012: 50 → 25 BTC (price on the day $12.35, rose to $127 after 150 days)
• 2016: 25 → 12.5 BTC (price on the day $650.63, $758.81 after 150 days)
• 2020: 12.5 → 6.25 BTC (price on the day $8,740, $10,943 after 150 days)

Data shows a pattern: the halving day is usually not the bottom. Instead, it opens a window of opportunity for gains in the following months.

Why Slash Rewards? Satoshi’s Deflationary Design

Bitcoin’s total supply is locked at 21 million. The halving mechanism is a valve to control new coin issuance—it gets slower and slower, and the last Bitcoin won’t be mined until 2140.

This mirrors gold’s scarcity logic. In an era of fiat depreciation and central bank overprinting, a digital asset with fixed supply is especially precious. As of August 2023, 19.46 million BTC are in circulation, with about 31 more halvings before all coins are mined.

Compare this to Ethereum’s choice: in 2022, it switched to PoS staking, ending energy-intensive mining. Bitcoin, however, sticks to PoW, with miners exchanging computing power for security. Energy consumption is an issue, but it ensures the highest level of decentralization.

Miners Face a Shakeout: Small Players Eliminated

Halving is a life-or-death test for miners.

Short-term Impact: With rewards halved, small mining farms that were barely profitable immediately become unprofitable. Since mining equipment is expensive and downtime means loss, most miners will try to tough it out—but this also means some marginal operations will quietly exit.

Market Consolidation: Mining faces another round of reshuffling. Large pools with strong capital and low energy costs will become even more dominant. Big US mining companies (thanks to cheap electricity) will further eat into the share of small and medium miners.

Will difficulty drop? Historically, no. In the last two halvings, difficulty stayed steady or even increased. The reason is simple: miners are betting on a bull run. They’d rather take a loss and wait for the next surge.

Will network security be threatened? There is theoretical risk—if many miners quit, the cost of a 51% attack falls. But the Bitcoin network is now so massive, with globally distributed mining pools, that centralization is extremely difficult, providing natural defense.

The Investors’ Party Begins

Unlike miners’ pain, investors are generally bullish. The core logic is scarcity: new supply is cut in half; if demand stays the same or rises, prices must go up.

Historical Pattern: Bitcoin’s halving cycle unfolds in three phases—

1. Accumulation Phase (13-22 months): Slow bottom-building before halving, sideways or slight gains
2. Bull Phase (10-15 months): Explosive rally after halving, with 1-2 corrections but continued new highs
3. Bear Phase (600+ days): Peaks, then falls back into a bear market

The last cycle (May 2020 halving) illustrated this clearly: accumulation → bull peak at $69,000 → 77% crash into a bear market. We’re currently in the next accumulation phase—meaning there’s an 8-10 month window before the next major rally may begin.

How high will the price go? That depends on macro factors:

• Fed interest rate direction (affects risk asset inflows)
• Institutional investment (Bitcoin spot ETF approval = big money entry)
• Tech progress (can Bitcoin ecosystem innovation attract new users?)
• Overall crypto sentiment (AI boom, DeFi narratives, etc.)

What are analysts predicting?

• Pantera Capital: $150,000 in the next four-year cycle
• Standard Chartered: $120,000 by end of 2024
• Ark Invest CEO: $1.5 million by 2030 (very aggressive)
• Industry consensus: Breaking $100,000 before the halving is not a dream

But here’s a detail: each bull run’s gain has been shrinking. First halving: 927%, second: 408%, third: 130%. By this trend, this cycle may not exceed 500%—capping the price at $30,000-40,000 (from the current $25,000 base). But institutional money could rewrite the rules.

Will Altcoins Rally Too?

Bitcoin is the bellwether of the entire crypto market. When BTC moves, ETH and other major coins usually follow.

An interesting finding: according to crypto strategist van de Poppe, the 8-10 months before halving is the golden window to build altcoin positions. Historically, ETH/BTC cycle lows have appeared 252 days before halving (October 2015, September 2019). By this pattern, late August to early September this year will be the best entry point for altcoins.

This means: now is not the start of alt season. Wait for Bitcoin to finish its accumulation, then altcoins will rotate.

How to Profit from the Halving?

Conservative: Start DCA (dollar-cost averaging) into BTC now to lock in future bull market gains. Don’t chase the perfect entry point—let time and compound interest work for you.

Intermediate: Use spot trading to buy low and sell high, especially during the volatility around the halving. Deep liquidity is key.

Aggressive: Go long with leverage to amplify returns. But remember—when volatility is high, stop-losses and position management are your lifeline.

Passive Income: Stake or lend BTC for yield. Hold spot while earning APY—a cost-effective choice.

Arbitrage: Use P2P or cross-platform arbitrage. Price discrepancies often emerge during intense market moves.

Core Conclusion

The 2024 Bitcoin halving won’t be a dramatic event, but rather a long accumulation period. The real market moves will start 3-6 months after the halving. Current volatility isn’t worth chasing; instead, it’s a window for DCA and positioning.

Final advice: Prepare yourself mentally. Even if history repeats, the next $69,000 isn’t the ceiling, and a $10,000 pullback is possible. Halving is a cyclical opportunity—but only if you survive to see the next bull market.