Bitcoin: Analyst Explains Why the Rebound May Be Starting

Source: ETHNews Original Title: Bitcoin: Analyst Explains Why the Rebound May Be Starting Original Link: Bitcoin is attempting a recovery after one of its most aggressive multi-day sell-offs of the year, with price climbing back toward $86,700 following deep intraday volatility. The market is still digesting heavy ETF outflows and a wave of forced liquidations, but several technical signals are hinting that downside momentum may be losing strength.

One of the clearest signals comes from on-chain analyst Ali Martinez, who highlights that Bitcoin has now entered extreme oversold territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a condition that historically preceded notable rebounds.

Bitcoin Sees Relief Bounce After Steep Drop

Bitcoin’s short-term chart shows a dramatic decline from above $90,000 into the low $83K range before buyers stepped in. The five-minute TradingView chart reflects a sharp collapse followed by a stabilizing grind upward, suggesting capitulation may have reached exhaustion.

Trading volume increased significantly during the bottoming attempt, indicating aggressive bid interest from traders looking for discounted entries.

The current BTC price sits around $86,700, with volatility still elevated at over 8%, showing that markets remain fragile but active.

RSI Signals Extreme Oversold Conditions

Ali’s RSI chart provides the strongest technical signal of a potential reversal. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s RSI-14 has dropped into extreme oversold territory, a level hit only twice in the past two years. In both previous cases, the market formed a local bottom shortly afterward and began multi-week recovery rallies.

The chart shows:

• RSI has fallen to one of its lowest readings since early 2024.
• Historical instances at this level were followed by immediate price rebounds.
• Despite ongoing negative sentiment, momentum indicators suggest sellers may be losing control.

This oversold condition does not guarantee a reversal, but it marks an important environment where sharp relief rallies often originate.

Key Levels to Watch Based on Price Behavior

Bitcoin’s spot chart shows a clear battle between buyers and sellers near the $86K–$87K zone. Holding above this area would strengthen the case for a continuation of the recovery Ali is hinting at.

A break back above $88K would be the first technical confirmation that momentum is shifting back toward the bulls.

On the downside, losing $84K again would suggest the rebound is weak and that price may re-test liquidity pockets closer to $82K–$83K.

Market Sentiment Still Soft, but Technicals Favor a Relief Rally

Despite the RSI-based bullish signal, broader sentiment remains hesitant. ETF outflows, macro uncertainty and liquidation pressure have kept traders cautious. However, extreme oversold technical conditions rarely persist long in Bitcoin’s market structure.

If the RSI continues to stabilize at current levels, historical precedent indicates that Bitcoin could extend its recovery toward the $90K region over the coming sessions.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent rebound comes at a moment when the RSI is signaling deep overselling — a technical condition that previously marked major short-term bottoms. While sentiment remains fragile and volatility high, momentum indicators now lean toward the possibility of a relief rally. Holding the $86K–$87K zone will be critical for confirming whether this bounce can gain traction.