#比特币价格分析 Looking back at Bitcoin’s market trends over the years, I’ve witnessed countless bull and bear cycles. The recent report from Wintermute gave me a lot to reflect on. There was a time when Bitcoin was seen as a safe-haven asset, moving in the opposite direction of traditional markets. Now, however, it’s highly correlated with the Nasdaq Index, and even performs worse during downturns. The last time we saw this phenomenon was in the bear market of 2022.

As for the reasons, I think there are two main points worth pondering: first is the change in capital flows. Funds that used to flood into the crypto market now favor tech stocks. Bitcoin has lost its aura of independent narrative and has become a “high-beta tail risk” in the face of macro risks. Second is the change in crypto market liquidity. Stablecoin issuance has leveled off, ETF inflows have slowed, and trading depth hasn’t recovered to previous levels, making the market more sensitive to negative news.

This reminds me of the bull market at the end of 2013, when Bitcoin broke through the $1,000 mark for the first time and everyone thought it would soar. However, the good times didn’t last, and what followed was a bear market that lasted over a year. History has a way of repeating itself, but each era also has its own uniqueness. While Bitcoin’s market cap is huge today, it seems to have lost some of its former magic.

Where will things go from here? I believe the key lies in whether Bitcoin can reshape its narrative and regain a value proposition independent of traditional markets. At the same time, a recovery in market liquidity is crucial. After all, without enough “ammunition,” even the best story can’t support a sustained rally.

As a witness to all this, I constantly remind myself: don’t be blinded by short-term fluctuations, and be wary of falling into the “this time is different” trap. In the end, in this ever-changing market, perhaps the only constant is change itself.