#Gate广场圣诞送温暖 Recently, the cryptocurrency market has become more volatile. Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin once surged above $126,000, but recently it pulled back to around $80,000, a significant correction.

The volatility of crypto assets far exceeds that of traditional assets, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $80,000 support level. If the $80,000 support can hold, the market may see a certain degree of rebound, but the strength and sustainability of the rebound remain uncertain, as multiple unfavorable factors facing the market have not been fully eliminated. If the $80,000 support level is breached, Bitcoin's price may further decline in search of a new support area. Investors should rationally assess risks and plan their positions cautiously.

On the news front, there are currently increasing divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the prospect of a rate cut in December. On November 21 local time, John Williams, President of the New York Fed and the Fed's "number three," made dovish remarks. He believes that as downside risks to the labor market have increased and the upward pressure on inflation has eased, the Fed still has room for further rate cuts in the near term.

Stimulated by these dovish comments, traders have significantly increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in December. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, after Williams' speech on Friday, traders in the interest rate futures market raised the probability of a Fed rate cut in December to about 70%, nearly doubling from less than 40% the day before. In addition, Fed Governor Milan stated that if his vote becomes decisive, he would support a 25-basis-point rate cut. He also noted that labor market data has not met expected strength.

However, on November 22 local time, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, who has voting rights this year, said she does not see the need for the Fed to continue cutting rates in December. In an interview during an economic conference, Collins said the Fed has already implemented two 25-basis-point rate cuts since August, making the monetary policy stance slightly more inflation-restrictive. Collins pointed out that given inflation remains above the Fed's target level of 2%, such a policy stance may still be appropriate, especially as strong financial markets continue to support economic resilience. Collins' comments further highlight the divisions among policymakers regarding future monetary policy actions. After the Fed's second consecutive rate cut in October, several officials expressed opposition or uncertainty about a third consecutive rate cut in December. Minutes released by the Fed last week showed significant disagreement among policymakers on monetary policy. In addition, the government shutdown caused the loss of key economic data, making it more complicated to assess the state of the economy.