Bitcoin may enter a "super bear market"

I have been thinking about this question for a few days and was a bit hesitant about whether to say it. After some consideration, I decided to post it as a way to spark discussion and provide a reference for everyone.

To make a long story short, it mainly involves four aspects:

1. Macroeconomic Level

It is also the most important that the macroeconomic financial environment has undergone fundamental changes. Bitcoin was born out of the quantitative easing that started after the financial crisis in 2008, rising more than 10 million times.

The past 17 years have been the period of the most excessive liquidity in human history. Now, major economies are heavily in debt, and Western economies are facing serious inflation, especially after the super easing following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Unless something earth-shattering happens, monetary and fiscal policies are unlikely to return to the previous loose state. The market value of Bitcoin is now large enough that the biggest factor affecting its rise and fall is global liquidity.

2. Technical Aspects

Looking at it from the weekly and monthly charts, some key indicators have almost always been in a bull market state, but now these key technical indicators are forming a huge rounded top, and the left side has basically been completed.

3. Psychological Aspect

Those who now recognize Bitcoin and want to enter the market have already done so. This time, out of the more than 120,000 peak, aside from a few who liquidated, the vast majority did not manage to exit due to overly high expectations and a rapid decline. Moreover, in this market cycle, most of the main players entered in the range of 30,000 to 70,000, and now at over 80,000, they are unwilling to sell; many others are planning to bottom out between 50,000 and 80,000.

At the end of September and the beginning of November, I reminded two large whales to exit with over 110,000, and when I asked yesterday, they hadn't exited; they just unloaded all or part of their leverage.

So, those who bought above 100,000 didn’t sell, those who entered at 30,000 to 70,000 are unwilling to sell, and there's still a large expectation for bottom fishing at 50,000 to 80,000. This objectively creates a very good area of being trapped and a region that can quickly become trapped in the future. So as the main force, what will you do?

Four, the impact of AI

A few days ago, Bruce had a hypothesis: currently, there is a power shortage for AI in the United States, but a large amount of electricity is in the hands of miners. How can we get miners to give up their electricity? There is only one way: keep Bitcoin at a low level for a considerable period of time, dropping below the cost price of most miners, forcing those miners to sell their electricity resources.

In summary: Bitcoin may enter a "super bear market," with the extent of the decline, the bottom price, and the duration of hovering at the bottom possibly far exceeding the expectations and imaginations of most people.

Welcome to rational discussions, Block brainless fool!