Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Bear Market Warning vs. Institutional Bottom-Fishing

Experts Make Bold Moves: BTC Could Drop to $70,000

Ledn’s Chief Investment Officer Jon Glover is invoking Elliott Wave Theory, confidently declaring the bull market is over. His logic goes like this: after falling from this year’s high of $126,000 to $104,000, the five-wave uptrend has finished, and now we’re entering a bear cycle expected to last until the end of 2026. In the worst-case scenario, BTC could break down to $70,000—a 35%+ plunge from the current $108,000 level.

He also emphasized that even if BTC retests the all-time high of $124,000, it wouldn’t be surprising, but the overall trend has turned downward.

But Here’s an Awkward Detail

BTC balances on exchanges have dropped to a six-year low. That might sound bad, but on the flip side—it means whales are scooping up and hoarding coins. Since October alone, 45,000 BTC (around $4.8 billion) have been withdrawn from exchanges, with investors buying the dip.

The 30-day MVRV index shows -7.56%, indicating that those who entered the market in the past month are still sitting on a 7.5% unrealized loss. This is classic “buy the dip” behavior.

Short-term Pain or Long-term Crisis?

The market is hurting right now:

• BTC is struggling to hold $107,000 and could break below $100,000 at any moment
• Some analysts are bearish toward $95,000 or even $91,000
• Trading volume has plunged 59%, with only $10 billion in turnover
• The Fear & Greed Index remains in “fear” territory
• US spot ETFs saw $1.23 billion in outflows this week—institutions are cutting positions

But there are also easing signals: the RSI indicator shows selling pressure is easing, which could lead to a rebound.

Can Gold’s Surge Save BTC?

Gold is on a historic tear with exceptionally strong performance. There’s a theory that when the greed index peaks in the gold market, capital often rotates into BTC. If this pattern holds, BTC could have a comeback opportunity.

Bottom Line

This is a classic period of uncertainty: bear market alarms are ringing, but institutions and whales are aggressively positioning. Whether you believe the bear market is here is up for debate, but one thing’s for sure—volatility will continue. Investors should brace for a potential 20–30% drawdown.