The probability of a Fed rate cut in October has soared to 99%. What is the market waiting for?

According to CME federal funds futures data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October has been locked in at 99%, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is almost 0.

What does this mean for the crypto market? Simply put - expectations of easing are rising, and liquidity may warm up. Historically, every time a rate-cutting cycle begins, there is a repricing of risk assets. The reactions of BTC and mainstream coins often lead the stock market.

However, don't rush to go all-in; the macroeconomic situation is only one aspect. We also need to consider the supply and demand dynamics within the crypto space. Recent on-chain data shows that whales are accumulating positions at low levels, and retail investor enthusiasm is also on the rise. This round of interest rate cuts may serve as a catalyst for sentiment.

The key to watch is the actual timeline and magnitude of interest rate cuts, as changes in CME data can sometimes be seen as a contrarian indicator.