BTC is a bit uncomfortable this week.

From $107K to $87.5K, retail investors have begun to withdraw. CryptoQuant data shows that active addresses have dropped from 1.18 million to 870,000, a decrease of over 26%.

Institutions are also reducing their positions — BlackRock's IBIT has seen a continuous outflow of 4.3 billion USD over the past four weeks, with 1.2 billion exiting just last week. Even more concerning is that the net buying volume from institutions has dropped below the average daily mining output for the first time in seven months. This also happened in April this year, resulting in BTC plummeting directly to $75K.

From a technical perspective, the Metcalfe index shows that the NVM ratio has soared to 2.97, while the historical average is around 1, indicating that the valuation is significantly ahead of the network size. Analysts predict that $98.5K may be the next support.

The good news is that the US-China trade tensions have eased, but the Fed's stance has become more hawkish, with the probability of a rate cut in December only at 63%. The major tech stocks are rising, but the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has completely broken since the end of last year.

This week nothing is certain, just waiting to see how it goes after the US market opens.