#美联储恢复降息节奏 There is a clear division within the Fed regarding the issue of interest rate cuts, and this policy game is directly affecting BTC price nerves.

The New York Fed has released dovish signals, with the market pricing in a 70% probability of a rate cut in December—this expectation instantly injected liquidity into Bitcoin's imagination. However, Boston Fed President Collins took a contrary stance, clearly opposing another rate cut this year, and the hawkish statement strengthened the dollar index, which in turn suppressed BTC's upward momentum. These two forces are counteracting each other, and the price of the coin is likely to oscillate within a certain range.

The technical signals are also quite mixed: the MACD has just formed a golden cross, the RSI has crawled out of the oversold zone to catch a breath, but the daily downtrend has not yet been reversed. In the short term, $BTC should find support in the range of 85,500 to 86,000 dollars. If it wants to break through the resistance above, it must first overcome the level of 87,500 to 88,000 dollars; otherwise, it will continue to oscillate and digest.

Another noteworthy structural change is that the number of small addresses holding 1 BTC or less is decreasing, while the number of whale and institutional addresses is significantly increasing. This suggests that the market's volatility may narrow, but the time for sideways consolidation will be prolonged—the allocation logic of long-term funds is reshaping the rhythm of the entire market.