With only half a month left until the Fed's interest rate decision in December, a rare internal division is unfolding.

Among the 12 core voting members of the FOMC, 5 have publicly expressed opposition to a rate cut. This number has directly cut the market's originally certain expectations for a rate cut down to below 30%—it is worth noting that this figure was over 70% just a month ago. The rationale of the hawkish camp is very straightforward: inflation data has not stabilized yet, and easing now would lay a trap for the future.

More subtly, there is Powell's silence. In the past, a single statement from him could set the market direction, but this time he chose "tactical invisibility," completely handing over the discourse power to the voting members. What was the result? The originally firm stance of the doves began to soften, and a vaguely worded statement from the president of the New York Fed could cause the market to fluctuate several points. The dollar index, gold, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies are all being tossed around in this uncertainty.

A look back at the records reveals that the internal divisions within the Fed have been rare in nearly a decade. Since June, there have been dissenting votes at almost every meeting, with the frequency of disagreements reaching an all-time high. Now, there are 7 voting members left who have not made clear statements, and each of their speeches could become a trigger. The meeting on December 10 can be described as "tossing a coin"—with a fifty-fifty chance, the outcome completely depends on how the last few votes align.

This situation is a double-edged sword for traders. High volatility means more opportunities, but the margin for error is compressed to the extreme. Policy expectations change daily, making platforms with low spreads and fast execution particularly valuable - after all, a sudden change of stance from a policymaker can lead to price movements that typically take a day to unfold within just a few minutes. Multi-asset allocation becomes more critical, as a single position can easily be breached by a specific piece of news.

The current question is: how will these 7 swing voters decide? Will they really dare to cut interest rates in December given the significant disagreements? Or will they simply hold their ground and leave the suspense until next year? The market has already started to vote with its feet, and every policy signal from now on is worth keeping a close eye on.