The US economic data has come out, looking quite lively, but upon closer inspection, it's a bit cold.

The GDP is expected to grow by around 2% next year, mainly driven by consumption and corporate investment. The problem is that the new tariff policy may directly cut the growth rate by more than 0.25%—in other words, the cake was already small, and now a piece has been cut away.

The job market is less optimistic: the number of new jobs added each month may only be 64,000, and the unemployment rate is likely to rise to 4.5% next year. There are more people looking for jobs, but companies are hiring more slowly.

What about inflation? It's about 2.9% by the end of this year, and expected to drop to 2.6% next year. But with tariffs coming in, prices could rise again by 0.25% to 0.75%. It's decreasing, but not fast enough.

The Federal Reserve has also become more cautious. A rate cut of 0.25% is possible in December, but it is estimated to only decrease by 0.5% next year, far from the "massive easing" the market had previously anticipated. The rate cut brake means that the dollar will not depreciate significantly in the short term.

**What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market?**

The Federal Reserve is not aggressively cutting interest rates, the US dollar remains strong, and the safe-haven properties of cryptocurrencies may be weakened in the short term. Don't expect a sudden surge in the market.

But from another perspective: high inflation + weak employment + slowing economic growth may quietly channel long-term funds into inflation-resistant assets like gold and Bitcoin. Especially if the US stock market begins to adjust due to weakening economic expectations, some funds will seek new outlets, and the crypto market may become one of those options.

**What should retail investors do?**

Don't chase higher prices. The market may fluctuate in the short term, and rushing in when you see a rise can easily lead to being trapped.

Pay attention to some cryptocurrencies that are relatively resilient against downturns; during times of high economic uncertainty, these types of assets tend to be more stable.

If you are optimistic about the long-term trend, you may consider a dollar-cost averaging strategy, buying in batches when prices are low, rather than investing heavily all at once.

Will Bitcoin soar in 2025 due to high inflation, or will it be suppressed by monetary policy? There is no standard answer to this question. But one thing is certain: when the economy is jogging slowly, patience is worth more than impulse.