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Today is Monday, November 25, 2025. I’m Wang Yibo! Good morning, crypto family ☀
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With only 6 days left in November, the crypto market’s volatility is reaching a new peak. The core driver? A dramatic reversal in expectations for a Fed rate cut.

Just a few days ago, sentiment for a December rate cut cooled sharply, with the probability falling below 30%. Bitcoin reacted instantly, falling to the 80,000 zone, triggering panic selling among retail traders.

But on November 21, everything flipped again.

After the Fed’s No.3 official released dovish remarks, the probability of a December 25bp cut surged to 69.4%, with only 30.6% expecting no change. Expectations for January 2026 also turned bullish:

56.9% probability of a 25bp cut

22.3% probability of a cumulative 50bp cut

In this tug-of-war between bulls and bears, retail traders panic-sold while institutions quietly accumulated. Bitcoin then broke back above 88,000, perfectly showcasing how complex market manipulation can be.

Follow Yibo for real-time market breakdowns and insights!

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Bitcoin Analysis

After testing the 80,000 support last Friday, Bitcoin didn’t continue downward—instead, it moved into a steady upward consolidation channel.

Recent moves:

Yesterday’s low: 84,200

Midday rally: 86,800

Minor retrace to: 85,500

Renewed breakout: 88,094 (this morning)

Now entering a small corrective pullback.

Key zones to watch:

Resistance: 88,500 — break this level with volume, and the upside opens further.

Support: 86,000–86,500 (Bollinger mid-band) — crucial if pullback continues.

Technically, Bitcoin maintains short-term bullish structure, with decent volume support. Focus on the validity of resistance breakouts to capture the next move.

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Ethereum Analysis

After completing its earlier correction, Ethereum is showing even stronger rebound power.

Market recap:

Friday low: 2,621 → quick rebound to 2,805

Saturday consolidation: dip to ~2,700, then fast recovery

Sunday upward drive: intraday high at 2,857

Now stabilizing near 2,800

Sentiment is improving steadily, earlier panic fading, and the bullish mood is strengthening.

Technical view:
On the 1-hour chart, all three Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, forming a classic strong ascending channel. ETH has also broken above the upper band and held, confirming strong short-term momentum.

Overall, ETH is likely to continue its rise-consolidate-rise pattern, with solid room for further upside and strong bullish momentum.