Recently, the market is quite interesting; on one side, BTC is fluctuating at a high level, while on the other side, the Fed has begun to play the "interest rate cut suspense drama."

First, let's share some explosive news: this autumn, a certain big shot has made a move again—spending at least $82 million to buy bonds in one go. Documents disclosed by the U.S. government's Office of Ethics last Saturday show that this money landed on October 17 and 20, purchasing solid hard currency: corporate bonds from giants in tech and manufacturing like Netflix, Meta, and Boeing, as well as bonds issued by Wall Street veterans like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. What's even more interesting is that municipal bonds issued by local school districts, utilities, and hospitals were not spared either. By the way, during the government term, they also conveniently acquired shares in Intel—this operation certainly doesn’t seem like just a casual play.

Now let's turn our attention to the Fed. The latest data from CME's "Fed Watch" is a bit heart-wrenching: as of 7 AM Beijing time on November 17, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has fallen below 50%, now only at 44.4%. It's worth noting that not long ago, the market was convinced that there would be a rate cut by the end of the year. Now, in this situation, even Goldman Sachs analysts are anxious, stating that "insufficient data has disrupted the rhythm," and the original script of "one cut in December, a pause in January" may need to be rewritten.

James Bianco, the president of Bianco Research, boldly stated: "The Fed is undergoing significant changes." The implication behind this statement is clear—don't expect policies to follow the old path. For the crypto market, this uncertainty is a double-edged sword: it could either drive BTC up due to risk-averse sentiment or lead to a direct pullback if liquidity expectations fall short. At this point in time, those holding coins likely need to be more vigilant.