Recently, U.S. economic data has released some subtle signals - growth expectations have been raised, but the pace of interest rate cuts has clearly slowed, employment data is weak, and inflation remains stubborn. What is hidden behind this combination?

Many investors may think that changes in interest rate cuts only affect the stock market, but for the cryptocurrency market, this could pose a deeper risk. The Federal Reserve is slowing down the rate cuts against the backdrop of improved growth expectations, while inflation remains stubbornly high, which essentially means that the cost of capital remains elevated, and market liquidity will be gradually tightened.

What does the crypto market rely on the most? Liquidity. Looking back at how the bear market in 2018 formed? It was due to the global liquidity drying up, with funds withdrawing from risk assets. The current situation feels somewhat familiar - employment data is sluggish, but inflation is as hard as a rock, indicating that the foundation for economic recovery is not solid. Large funds are on the sidelines, while retail investors are still dreaming of the bull market continuing?

Looking at data is not as important as looking at structure. The current structure is: the rise is supported by expectations, inflation is influenced by tariff policies, and the job market is lingering on the edge of weakness. On the surface, GDP forecasts seem optimistic, but in reality, the support strength is questionable. Looking at Bitcoin's historical performance, during times of increased economic uncertainty, it often does not just decline unilaterally, but rather seeks a new equilibrium amidst violent fluctuations. This is the logic that deserves attention.

So how should ordinary investors respond?

**First, maintain cash reserves**. Don't exhaust all your bullets at once; black swan events in the market can occur at any time, so keep some ammunition to deal with emergencies.

**Second, adhere to a regular investment strategy**. Choose cryptocurrencies with relatively solid fundamentals for regular investment, and don't be tempted by the soaring stories of air projects. During market volatility, regular investment can effectively smooth out costs.

**Third, keep a close eye on policy trends**. Every statement and data point from the Federal Reserve can serve as a trigger for a market turning point. Signals of a shift in monetary policy often have more predictive value than technical indicators.

The market has never been short of opportunities; what is lacking is the ability to see the essence of these opportunities. In an environment where liquidity is tightening, risk assets will face greater pressure, but it will also give rise to new entry opportunities. The key is not to be led by emotions and to maintain calm judgment.

At this stage, rather than betting on a one-sided market, it's better to manage risks well and wait for clearer signals. After all, surviving is the only way to have a chance to turn things around.