On November 25, #美联储恢复降息节奏 , the market sentiment made a 180-degree turn.

Two heavyweight figures spoke out on the same day—Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that inflation will continue to decline, and the data in January next year will be crucial; San Francisco Fed President Daly was even more direct, stating that the risk of problems in the labor market now is much greater than the threat of inflation rebounding. As soon as she said this, the CME data immediately reflected: the probability of a rate cut in December soared to 80.9%. It’s worth noting that in the third quarter, everyone was still debating whether there would be a cut.

How fast does the capital respond? All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 2.69%, leading the way. Tech stocks and growth stocks were the first to get excited; once the expectation of liquidity easing came, these sectors became the most direct beneficiaries. $BTC even more aggressive, breaking through the $89,000 mark in a short period of time, with a 24-hour increase of 1.64%. As one of the assets most sensitive to liquidity, the cryptocurrency market often starts earlier than traditional markets.

Why did the Federal Reserve suddenly shift?

The logic is actually not complicated. Employment data is weakening, with increasingly obvious signals of slowing hiring and rising layoffs; although inflation has not fully subsided, core inflation has stabilized; continuing to tighten policies could lead to a hard landing for the economy, which poses a greater risk than inflation itself; moreover, warning signs of economic pressure for 2025 have already emerged, and a preemptive interest rate cut can provide the market with some buffer space.

Looking ahead? If interest rates are indeed cut in December, the US stock market is very likely to continue this rebound, with technology stocks remaining the main force. The crypto market may be even more exciting, $BTC and the entire industry are likely to迎来主升浪, with increases even surpassing traditional assets.

However, one must stay vigilant—there will be a slew of economic data released in January next year, and if the data performs worse than expected, the Federal Reserve's stance could change at any time. Market expectations can shift faster than flipping a book.