The Fed is now more worried about whether the economy will stall rather than inflation. They are playing a double game - lowering interest rates while stabilizing the financial system.

Let’s talk about the interest rate cut. According to the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has soared to 81%-83%. The logic behind this is clear: weak employment data, inflation is declining, and the central bank has no reason to continue to stubbornly hold high interest rates.

Looking at the balance sheet reduction again. The date of December 1, 2025 has been set in stone, and the Fed will stop reducing the balance sheet. In other words, it will no longer actively withdraw liquidity from the market, but will maintain liquidity at a comfortable level.

What do these two moves together mean? An epic signal of double easing. This is definitely a positive for risk assets, but whether it can really spark a decent market rally depends on whether subsequent data will contradict it. The market never runs wildly just because of expectations; it needs to be backed by real capital.

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hodl_therapist

· 11-27 08:46

Interest rate cuts + halt in balance sheet reduction, the dual easing is indeed a bit harsh. But to be honest, the market has long priced in this favourable information; the key still lies in how the actual data turns out. I'm just afraid it's another "the wolf is coming" situation, where expectations are fully priced in but the market can't pump out.

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LoneValidator

· 11-26 22:40

Interest rate cuts + halting balance sheet reduction, double easing... sounds great, but I still need to see the data speak for itself, I hope it's not just paper Favourable Information.

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BitcoinDaddy

· 11-26 10:58

Wait a minute, a probability of 81-83%, it feels like interest rate cuts are already a done deal. Double easing is coming, can this wave give the crypto world a breather? Speaking of stopping the balance sheet reduction by the end of 2025, liquidity has eased, but can it really pump? Expectations vs reality, the market is always slapping faces. Double easing sounds nice, but if the data is bad, it will still crash. This time it won't be just a feint, right... Concerns about economic slowdown are greater than inflation, this matter has a bit of a flavor. Interest rate cuts + stopping the balance sheet reduction, the Americans are really panicking. Sufficient liquidity is a good thing, but we still need to see if employment can hold up. After speculating on expectations for so long, we just have to wait for December to see the truth. Interest rate cuts are a sure thing, the key is whether the strength is enough. The easing cycle has begun, but I am more concerned whether it is just a facade.

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OnchainDetective

· 11-25 09:56

Wow, interest rate cuts + tapering halt, this double easing is too intense, waiting to see if the data will slap us in the face. The Fed is really anxious, shifting from anti-inflation to saving the economy, this reversal caught us off guard. An 81% probability of rate cuts indicates that the market has already grasped the Fed's intentions, just waiting to see if there will be any changes later. Both sides need to be strong, easing while maintaining stability, the Fed needs to think this move through. Real money is the key, expectation speculation has been seen too much in the encryption circle, it’s better to look at actual data.

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ImpermanentLossFan

· 11-25 09:46

Wait, can dual easing really save the economy? Feels like gambling again --- An 81% probability sounds pretty high, but why do I feel like expectations are too inflated? --- Rate cuts + stopping the balance sheet reduction, it sounds good, but the key is whether the employment data is strong enough --- Market expectations and reality often clash, will it be the same this time? --- The Fed is probably making its last prescription, feels a bit anxious --- For risk assets to take off, it also needs to be supported by data, how far can we go relying solely on expectations? --- Stopping the balance sheet reduction in December 2025 feels like a long wait --- Dual easing sounds great, but if the economy really slows down, will these two measures be enough? --- It's easy to inflate expectations, but it's hard to put real money on the line --- I'm just afraid that even if they cut rates, the market still won't react, that would be awkward.

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EthSandwichHero

· 11-25 09:35

With an 81% probability, is the Fed going for a soft landing or point shaving? Is it real or not? Rate cuts + halting balance sheet reduction, this tactic is indeed fierce, just waiting to see how the data plays out. It's again favourable information and waiting for data, the routine hasn't changed. The Fed seems to be in a panic, economic stall is scarier than inflation. Double easing sounds nice, but can it really save the economy? It's uncertain. If the data turns against us again this time, I think we'll have to eat noodles again. Is it a market rescue or a poisonous drink to quench thirst? We have to wait and see. The rate cut shoe is about to drop, everyone better be mentally prepared.

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