#非农数据超预期 Nonfarm payroll data exceeds expectations, supporting the Fed in slowing the pace of rate cuts; crypto sector under pressure as the market awaits the Fed’s next move!

In September, the US nonfarm employment data showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations of 53,000, but this “outdated” data failed to reverse the decline in the crypto market.

Bitcoin once dipped to $80,646, under the combined weight of multiple pressures:

Core influencing factors:
1. Fed policy uncertainty
The nonfarm data reinforced a hawkish stance, with Fed officials adopting a cautious attitude towards rate cuts. The probability of a December rate cut once fell to 39.6%. Policy disagreements have intensified, and the market is in wait-and-see mode.
2. Leverage liquidation and market overheating
Since November, over $5 billion in leveraged positions have been liquidated, including a single large order of $47.87 million. After reaching a new high, Bitcoin entered an “overheated” phase, with significant correction pressure.
3. Structural contradictions in the data
New jobs were concentrated in sectors such as healthcare and government, while transportation and warehousing lost 25,000 jobs. These structural issues weaken the data’s representativeness, making the market response more complex.

Key signals for future trends:
· Fed December meeting: If a dovish signal is released, Bitcoin may lead a rebound (cryptocurrencies are highly sensitive to liquidity).
· Institutional capital flows: Inflows into spot BTC-ETFs will be an important indicator.
· Market structure transformation: Crypto assets are shifting from “narrative-driven” to “value and adoption-driven.”
Expert outlook: In an optimistic scenario, if the US dollar weakens and institutional funds return, Bitcoin could rebound to $100,000–$120,000;

In a pessimistic scenario, if regulation tightens or risk appetite declines, it could fall below $80,000.

#美联储 #比特币 #MacroRisk
(This analysis is based on public market data and does not constitute investment advice.)