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Today's market analysis from Little Caishen

The Bitcoin market showed a strong rebound today, with the price breaking through the $89,000 mark, achieving a daily increase of 2.55% and closing at $89,112.68. This price level is approximately 2.5% higher than the previous day's closing price of $86,923.78, indicating a significant improvement in market sentiment. Major altcoins like Ethereum also rose in tandem, with Ethereum's price surpassing $2,900 and a daily increase of 3.57%.

The Bitcoin futures CME contract had a daily fluctuation range of $80,745 to $88,145, ultimately closing at $85,155, down 2.48% from the previous day. The price difference between the spot and futures markets reflects investors' divergence in future trends.

👉Market Trends and Influencing Factors

✅Macroeconomic Environment

Federal Reserve officials have recently expressed support for a rate cut in December, which is favorable for risk assets. San Francisco Fed President Daly stated, "I’m concerned about a sudden deterioration in the labor market, supporting a rate cut in December," and this remark boosted prices of risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, the core PCE inflation rate in the U.S. remains above the Fed's target, bringing uncertainty to the direction of monetary policy.

✅Policy factors

The tariff policy of the Trump administration continues to affect the market. On November 15, Trump threatened to impose a 20% tariff on EU imported cars, raising concerns about global trade frictions, which led to a temporary influx of funds into traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold. However, as the market digested this news, funds flowed back into the cryptocurrency market.

👉Institutional capital flow

The US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced net outflows for five consecutive weeks, with a total withdrawal of $2.6 billion. Among them, the BlackRock IBIT ETF saw a single-week outflow of $420 million, setting a record for the largest weekly outflow since the fund's inception. The withdrawal of institutional funds reflects an adjustment in investment logic, as the market is reassessing Bitcoin's positioning as a risk asset.

👉Recent Price Trend Analysis

Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,295 in October 2025, followed by a significant pullback. In early November, the price fluctuated between $100,000 and $112,000, and in mid-November, it experienced a sharp drop due to macroeconomic factors, falling to a low of $90,800. The rebound on November 25 marked a phase of market recovery.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has shown a steady upward channel since mid-October, with strong support above $106,000. The 4-hour chart indicates that Bitcoin is forming a typical triangular convergence pattern, which is a precursor to a large-scale breakout. If BTC can effectively break through the resistance level of $111,700, the short-term upward target will expand to the range of $116,000 to $120,000.

👉Expert Opinions and Market Expectations

Analyst PlanB predicts that Bitcoin could exceed $250,000 in the coming years based on its stock-to-flow (S2F) model. He believes that fundamental changes, such as Trump being elected President of the United States, provide new catalysts for Bitcoin’s rise. Some analysts suggest that Bitcoin is expected to challenge the $160,000 high, mainly based on historical seasonal factors and expectations of institutional fund inflows.

Institutions such as JPMorgan are optimistic about the transformation of Bitcoin miners, expecting that some miners will achieve capacity transformation by 2026. This view provides a positive outlook for the long-term development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.