Reuters survey: Institutions predict the S&P 500 will rise 12% next year, but there is a significant risk of a recent pullback.

[Coin World] Reuters recently conducted a large survey, interviewing 45 stock market strategists, analysts, and fund managers, and the results are quite interesting—everyone generally has a positive outlook on the future performance of the S&P 500.

The survey period is from mid-November to the end of the month, and the median forecast is that the S&P 500 could climb to around 7490 points by the end of 2026, which means it needs to rise about 12% from now. If 2025 can indeed end in the green, it will mark the fourth consecutive year of gains for this index. The main factors supporting this wave of optimism are: the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still relatively solid, technology stocks continue to lead the way, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains relatively friendly.

But don't celebrate too early. Among the 14 people who answered additional questions, 8 believe that the S&P 500 may pull back in the next three months. The main concerns are twofold: first, there are signs of inflation rising, and second, it's still uncertain when interest rate cuts will happen.

In addition, the forecast for the Dow Jones is to close at around 50,566 points next year, which is more than 7% higher than the current 47,112 points. Overall, institutions remain optimistic about the market next year, but the risk of short-term volatility cannot be ignored.