In the third quarter, we observed that the options market held an optimistic attitude towards the fourth quarter. Even during the late August when the Bitcoin price continued to fall, the fourth quarter options holdings remained bullish.

We used to call it the Q4 market or the Christmas market; however, the crash of 1011 and the continued decline in November have completely shattered the previous market structure. In the current market context, the voices calling for a new high in prices in the fourth quarter have completely disappeared, and a pessimistic atmosphere is spreading.

Despite the decline in RV, IV, and 25D Skew this week, market panic has not dissipated, and the medium to long-term options data from the end of this year to next year still points to bearish.

Due to the approaching monthly delivery, the price fluctuations this month have been significant, so the demand for moving positions from the whales is very strong. The large orders mentioned by Jake O should also be part of the repositioning.

From the overall data, it can be seen that a short-term bottom has formed, and the options market's preference for the recent continuous fall has weakened. However, the market expectation for short-term fluctuations is still considerable. Nevertheless, the market in the last month of this year remains dangerous, and volatility expectations are still high.