#数字货币市场回升 A significant turning point has emerged in the global Central Bank's direction! The Federal Reserve's expectation for a rate cut in December has soared to 84.7%, and this number is rewriting the pricing logic of all risk assets.

**Intensive Release of Policy Signals**

In recent weeks, there has been a rare concentrated shift in voices within the Federal Reserve. Governor Mulan bluntly stated that the current interest rate levels are excessively stifling economic activity and need to return to a neutral range as soon as possible. San Francisco Fed's Daly further warned of the risk of non-linear deterioration in employment data, which provides new justification for action in December.

Economic data is also aligning with this narrative. The year-on-year growth rate of core PPI has fallen to 2.6%, indicating a significant easing of inflationary pressures; meanwhile, the month-on-month retail sales growth has only recorded a weak increase of 0.2%, showing a marked slowdown in consumer momentum. All these indicators point in the same direction — the window for policy adjustment has already opened.

**Market reaction is immediate**

The interest rate futures market has quickly adjusted its pricing. From around 70% a week ago, the probability of a rate cut in December has jumped to 84.7%. This dramatic change has driven a reallocation across assets: the three major US stock indexes have collectively risen, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 1.4% in a single day; gold prices have broken through key resistance levels; even traditional institutions like Goldman Sachs and Northern Trust have begun to publicly express support for action within the year.

**The Special Position in the Cryptocurrency Field**

For the digital asset market, this shift in macro expectations may bring about a unique catalytic effect. Cathie Wood's previously proposed "December 10 Bull Market Starting Point" theory is being increasingly validated by on-chain data. Bitcoin, as a narrative of a non-sovereign asset, has gained new logical support against the backdrop of improving global liquidity expectations.

From the perspective of the position structure, large wallet addresses have been continuously increasing their BTC exposure over the past two weeks, and the long leverage in the derivatives market is also steadily rising. These signs indicate that professional players have begun to prepare for the potential upcoming liquidity easing cycle. The Ethereum ecosystem, due to its well-developed DeFi infrastructure, is also seen as a beneficiary; while some smaller market cap tokens are waiting for opportunities to rotate in sentiment.

**Uncertainty still exists**

Of course, a probability of 84.7% is not set in stone. Institutions like CITIC Securities remind that international geopolitical situations, tail risks of inflation, and internal divisions within the Federal Reserve could all become variables. However, based on the current data and statements, the market has already begun to make choices with capital flows.

This is not just a regular expectation of interest rate adjustment, but a signal that the global asset allocation logic may undergo a deep change. Missing this stage of position adjustment may mean missing the opening move of the next cycle.

💬 What do you think about the impact of this interest rate cut expectation on the crypto market? How do you plan to adjust your positions? Feel free to share your thoughts.