#比特币波动性 In the past couple of days, the US stock market has clearly regained some momentum, and the overall market doesn't seem as shaky. To be honest, I haven't seen any signs of a second bottom yet. Some say that this wave has actually priced in the expectation of a rate cut in December in advance — the Fed will hold a meeting on the 9th to 10th of next month, and now the market is betting that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is approaching 80%.

You should take a look at the US stock market and gold; they have been grinding at high levels and haven't collapsed at all. On the contrary, our crypto market has dropped the hardest among global risk assets this round. But if we think about it differently, the fact that others haven't fallen might indicate that we've released the pressure ahead of time, right? If we squat low enough, we might rebound even stronger later.

Moreover, you see, since the crash starting from 1011, there have been several rounds of sharp declines, and with some stablecoin projects directly collapsing, this whole series of moves essentially amounts to forced deleveraging. The effect is indeed significant.

However, the crypto world has its own rhythm. According to the four-year cycle theory, next year is theoretically a bear market year, which indeed does not align well with the interest rate cut cycle. Personally, I trust the logic of cycles more—looking back at the wave in October and November, it resembles a phase top. To be realistic, the likelihood of seeing a particularly violent surge in the next month or two is low.

But the good thing about crypto investment is this: if it doesn't work, just wait another four years. As long as you hold reliable assets, time is your friend.

This round of the bull market $BTC has performed exceptionally, but other assets have lagged a bit. $ETH and those DeFi blue chips can only be considered barely passing overall. I didn't reduce my holdings significantly in October because ETH didn't break through 5000—since it hasn't reached the expected selling point, I will continue to hold. Looking at the cycle, there will still be small spring ups in between. Moreover, the prices of quality assets are actually quite stable now, so there's no need to be too pessimistic.