Why can't #BTC rise above 90,000 these days? The script was already written on the options before Friday: 85,000 is the defense line, 90,000 is the top, and the market maker is collecting rent in between....

I looked at the options expiring on Friday, and this wave also has a massive open interest of 13 billion.
There are several conclusions:

1 The biggest pain point 101000, too far, limited impact on price, can't get there..

2 Then look at 9W here.. Here together with 8W, there are two enormous yellow columns (put). At the same time, 9W also has the largest wave of calls below 9W5 (( blue column).

This collectively forms a resistance level.. Because the seller of the options (large institutions) needs to sell spot or short contracts to hedge when the price approaches 90K after selling calls in this wave..
Selling these puts also requires selling spot to reduce delta for hedging..

In short, it can be said that 90K here is a short-term resistance level caused by various hedges by institutions in Options.

3 Let's take another look at 80,000 here.. There is also a large wave of Put options here.. However, the Delta is almost 0 (-0.036), which means the market currently believes that the probability of falling below 80,000 before Friday is still not very high..

3 The real battleground for bulls and bears is between 85000 and 82000, where the puts are the two second-highest peaks between the two largest peaks at 80K and 90K.

The bulls will defend 85000. If it breaks below 85000, a bunch of Puts here will turn from out-of-the-money to in-the-money, and the market maker's hedging actions will accelerate the decline...
But from the looks of these past two days, the 85000 support is still holding.

So, oscillating between 85000 and 90000 until the Friday delivery has become the most likely scenario in the past two days..

Next, let's talk about the risks of the two segments:

4 If there is an unexpected bearish situation that causes the price to fall below 85000, the put at 85000 will need to be hedged in the opposite direction, which will continue to sell off and accelerate the market decline (Gamma Flip) looking towards 82000 as another put support..
The most dangerous situation is breaking 80000. If the more than 5000 puts break here, the reverse hedging will be very fierce..

5 Similarly, if an unexpected positive factor causes the price to break through 90000, it will also lead to a wave of reverse hedging, causing sellers to continue buying spot to hedge..

Finally, based on the current delta, I calculated the probability of the price before the delivery on Friday..

Price < 80k 3.6%
80k – 85k 21.5%
85k – 88k 41.6%
88k – 90k 21.0%
90k – 100k 11.5%
> 100k 0.8%

The above script will become invalid after the options expiration this Friday....
On December 26th, there will be the largest options in history, with a nominal amount exceeding 20 billion... We'll talk about it then.