Market Analysis: Fluctuations and Long-term Logic Under Interest Rate Cut Expectations

The current market has not shown a secondary bottom signal, coupled with the recent significant rebound of U.S. stocks, injecting confidence into global risk assets. The core driving force behind this rebound is the "December Fed rate cut expectation"—before the monetary policy meeting on December 9-10, the market has priced in an 80% probability of a 25bp rate cut, leading to a simultaneous rebound in U.S. stocks, gold, and the cryptocurrency market.

It is worth noting that the US stock market and gold have consistently maintained high-level fluctuations without any substantial declines, whereas the cryptocurrency market had previously led the global risk assets in decline. From another perspective, this seems more like a "preemptive release of pressure": the crash on October 11 and subsequent continuous sharp declines, combined with the collapse of certain stablecoin projects, have completed a round of effective deleveraging. If the market initiates a rally subsequently, this period of consolidation may become the buildup before takeoff.

However, the cryptocurrency market has its own independent rhythm. The four-year cycle theory indicates that next year is likely still in a bear market, which is somewhat misaligned with the interest rate cut cycle. Considering the current environment, it is difficult to see a violent rally in the next 1-2 months, and the rise in October-November is more likely to be a temporary peak.

But the core advantage of crypto investment lies in the value of long-term holding: "Quality assets can be held for four years." In this round of bull market, Bitcoin has performed excellently, but traditional "blue-chip" assets like ETH and DeFi have shown mediocre performance. The large-scale reduction of positions at the end of October did not occur, and the core logic is that ETH has not reached the target selling point above 5000; moreover, the prices of quality assets are still holding steady, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic—there are never a lack of structural small bull market opportunities in a four-year cycle, and patience is the greatest confidence.