September's durable goods data just dropped, and it's a mixed bag. Orders climbed 0.5%—not bad, beats the street's 0.3% call, but it's a serious cooldown from August's blistering 3.0% surge.

Here's what matters: Strip out transportation, and you get a solid 0.6% bump, way stronger than the 0.2% analysts were betting on. But cut defense spending from the equation? That gain shrinks to just 0.1%. Core capital goods orders—the stuff businesses actually invest in for the long haul—tell us whether companies are feeling confident or playing it safe right now.