ETH Technical Outlook: Relief Bounce Underway, But Bearish Structure Intact

Ethereum is showing a mild recovery after sliding toward the $2,750–$2,850 support region, where buyers temporarily halted the selling pressure. The broader downtrend remains intact after repeated rejections from the $3,790–$4,065 zone, which aligns with the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels — a strong area where sellers previously dominated.

The deeper pullback forced ETH below all major EMAs:

20 EMA – $3,128

50 EMA – $3,486

100 EMA – $3,652

200 EMA – $3,513

These EMAs now sit above the price and act as layered resistance barriers that ETH must overcome for any meaningful bullish reversal.

The current bounce is constructive but remains fragile. A daily candle close above $3,173 (0.236 Fib) is the first sign of stabilization. However, the real momentum shift only begins if ETH breaks above $3,514 (0.382 Fib), followed by a retest of $3,790 (0.5 Fib).

A strong trend reversal would require a decisive reclaim of $4,065 (0.618 Fib) — the key level where bears previously regained full control.

On the downside, losing the $2,850 support could trigger another move toward $2,623, the major swing-low support. If that level fails, ETH may revisit the next high-timeframe demand zone near $2,402.

The RSI at 41.19 shows slight improvement from oversold levels but still reflects overall weak momentum, indicating the market remains vulnerable unless buyers step in with stronger volume.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance Zones:

$3,173 → $3,514 → $3,790 → $4,065

Support Zones:

$2,850 → $2,623 → $2,402

RSI:

41.19 — Gradual recovery but still weak momentum

📌 Summary

ETH is attempting a relief bounce from a strong support area, but the broader trend remains bearish below the $3,514–$3,790 resistance band. A full bullish reversal requires a breakout above $4,065, while failure to hold current support risks another retest of $2,623.

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