First, the conclusion: the ultimate goal of this round of Rebound is to get the major indices back above the 60-day moving average. The ChiNext has already completed the task ahead of schedule, while the main board is still on the way. However, when it actually reaches this position, the market will become more complex.

**The first key point: The technical resistance level is already clearly visible**

Last Friday's panic sell-off made me judge that there must be a decent rebound this week – sure enough, major indices are approaching the 60-day moving average. The ChiNext has already broken through, but such breakouts are often accompanied by selling pressure and require lateral consolidation; the main board's 60-day moving average is just at the 3900-point integer level, which also needs to oscillate repeatedly under dual pressure.

The logic is straightforward: after the index drops below the 60-day moving average, the natural target for the oversold recovery is to return to this lifeline. The question is what to do at this position? If it can stabilize with increased volume, the trend's continuation will be opened up; if it continues to shrink in volume and remains sluggish, then after the rebound faces resistance, it will likely have to go back to find the real support.

**The second key point: it is not just the performance of A-shares, but a global resonance**

This time, it's not just us who are rising; major global markets are also recovering from last week's pullback. For the A-shares, several favorable factors have combined: the RMB exchange rate has clearly strengthened recently, which is a tangible benefit for Chinese assets; after last Friday's panic sell-off, bottom-fishing funds are starting to enter the market; and a small detail - 16 new technology-themed funds have just been approved for issuance, with existing funds raising their positions in anticipation of the new funds taking over.

The previously popular varieties that fell below the 60-day moving average—technology stocks, new energy, and cyclical non-ferrous metals—can now have their rebound reference target set at this moving average. If you want to do a rebound on oversold stocks, this standard is quite practical.

**Third Key Point: The Subtle Changes in Today's Market**

The brokerage sector suddenly gained momentum today, clearly supporting the market to break through the 60-day moving average—yesterday I had already hinted that brokerages might step up at this time. However, we need to be cautious with the ChiNext, as the gap between the yellow and white lines on the intraday chart has widened a bit, and it has already broken through the moving average in advance. The probability of a significant further rise is low, and it may instead experience a pullback after reaching a high.

If the GEM really corrects, AI computing power and lithium battery stocks, which are heavyweight shares, will most likely also weaken. The market is still in a rhythm of sector rotation, with the previously strong directions rebounding more vigorously, mainly concentrated on:

- **Technology Direction**: There are opportunities in both AI hardware and application software, especially AI application software. Personally, I am optimistic about the sustainability in the coming year, and there may be a capital rebound today.
- **Rebound Sector**: New energy and cyclical non-ferrous metals, focus on those severely oversold varieties that have fallen below the 60-day moving average.
- **Defensive Allocation**: Dividends and Consumption. There were favorable policies for consumption yesterday, but quantitative funds repeatedly arbitraging affected the continuity of the sector, and those that are oversold can wait for a rotation opportunity; within dividends, coal has been fluctuating after a sharp drop, and a rebound from the oversold condition should come soon; banks might rally when growth stocks encounter resistance and the market turns defensive—there's a possibility of this today, as the ChiNext might face resistance, and short-term risk-averse funds will flow into banks.

**In conclusion**: The GEM has already encountered pressure near the 60-day moving average, and the main board and many oversold stocks will also face similar situations. If you are looking to take short-term rebounds, focusing on the 60-day moving average as the target is sufficient—when it reaches this position, it’s time to reduce positions or observe.