2025-11-27 03:25:24

The prediction data on Polymarket shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has surged to 85%.

The time has come for the expectations of interest rate cuts to ferment. Looking back at the previous two rounds, the market has made early bets, leading to a considerable rally. This time, the key will be the data on December 3rd and 4th—these two days will basically set the tone for the future direction.

But there is a hidden danger: if this time it is again due to poor economic data, a "forced" rate cut, combined with the already unstable geopolitical situation, the market may not accept it, and it might have to explore further down. After all, a rate cut cannot solve all problems; sometimes it is a warning signal instead.

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InfraVibes

· 11-29 03:44

85%? This probability is too optimistic. I feel like the data released on December 3rd will be a reality check.

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TeaTimeTrader

· 11-27 19:29

85% of the probability has already been reflected, the real point of interest is whether the data from those two days in December can exceed expectations. Historical experience tells me that the market is most afraid of "false interest rate cuts"; relying on interest rate cuts to sustain life when the economic fundamentals are in shambles is, on the contrary, a signal of a major peak.

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MEVSandwich

· 11-27 03:54

85%? Can we trust this number? It feels like they are always so confident, and then get slapped in the face.

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MainnetDelayedAgain

· 11-27 03:52

According to the database, how long has it been since the last time the market was "slapped in the face" with an 85% probability? Can December 3rd and 4th set the tone? I think we should establish a time archive for this "setting the tone." Lowering interest rates can't solve all problems, but a delay notice will always save the project party, that’s for sure.

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StakeWhisperer

· 11-27 03:50

A 85% probability sounds pretty risky... To put it bluntly, it's a gambler's mentality. Just because the first two rounds were successful, do you really believe this time? Once the data comes out in December, it will probably reverse again.

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ApeDegen

· 11-27 03:44

85%? That's hilarious, can we trust this data? The gamblers on Polymarket are getting all excited again.

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HodlOrRegret

· 11-27 03:37

An 85% probability sounds pretty impressive, but whether it can be fulfilled on December 3rd and 4th is the real test. The first two rounds had the same trap, and I'm just afraid that if the data looks bad this time, it will lead to a forced drop, which would undermine market confidence.

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rugpull_ptsd

· 11-27 03:37

85%? Heh, that number sounds dubious. It was this optimistic the last two times, and what was the result? December 3rd and 4th are the real deal. But I'll bet my GT, if this interest rate cut comes because the economy is bad, the market will get dumped in no time. An interest rate cut is not a cure-all; sometimes it's just a smokescreen.

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