Fed's surprise twist! December rate cut stuck in a 6:6 deadlock, crypto world and U.S. stocks "standing on the edge of a cliff"

The Fed's recent actions have completely stunned the financial markets! The December interest rate decision hasn't even been announced, and the battle between hawks and doves has escalated to the point of a "tie vote". The probability of a rate cut has soared from 40% to 85% and is now facing skepticism, causing wild fluctuations in U.S. stocks and the crypto world. Who can withstand this macro storm?

First, mark the core explosion point:

- Voting stalemate warning: The FOMC's 12-member voting group is currently at a standoff with 6 hawks and 6 doves. Four regional Fed presidents, including those from Boston and Chicago, have clearly opposed interest rate cuts. Powell's decisive vote will be the "key to breaking the deadlock". A historically rare policy impasse is approaching!
- Interest rate cut expectations have reversed significantly: The New York Fed President's statement of "there is still room for rate cuts" pushed the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool to show an 85% probability of a rate cut in December. However, JPMorgan bluntly stated that "the decision is extremely close," while Goldman Sachs is confident of a "third consecutive rate cut." The back-and-forth among institutions is dazzling.
- The policy toolkit has been implemented: the interest rate was just reduced by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in October, and QT tapering will end on December 1. Market liquidity will be eased, but the direction of interest rates remains a mystery. This "contradictory operation" directly rewrites the asset allocation logic.

The impact on the market has already become evident:

- The crypto world is the first to be affected: In November, when the expectation of interest rate cuts cooled, Bitcoin plummeted 15% in a single week, with over $1 billion in liquidations across the network, leaving 180,000 people devastated; however, as soon as the signal for easing was released, Solana surged directly to a peak of $165, and DEX trading volume surpassed that of Ethereum, turning high-risk assets into a "gamblers' paradise."
- US stocks on a rollercoaster: Last week, hawkish signals triggered a sharp decline, followed by a collective rebound after Williams' dovish remarks, with funds madly switching between stable yield assets and risk assets, repeatedly harvesting retail investors.
- Long-term logic changes: If interest rates remain high for a long time, the crypto world altcoin bubble will completely burst, but Bitcoin may hold the $75,000 cost line due to institutional holdings and the halving cycle; once interest rates are lowered, a flood of liquidity will push core crypto assets and US tech stocks to new highs.

Finally, I have a practical suggestion:
✅ Avoid high leverage in the short term: The crypto world contracts and US stock options are now "danger zones"; before the policies are implemented, the volatility will only become more extreme.
✅ Choose "hard currencies" for assets: core crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and compliant RWA tracks have far superior risk resistance compared to altcoins.
✅ Keep a close eye on key data: November core PCE inflation (currently 2.9%), unemployment rate (4.5% is the critical value), any fluctuations could rewrite Fed decisions.

The current Fed is like holding the "market switch"; the interest rate meeting on December 9-10 will set the tone for the financial direction in 2026. Will the crypto world see another surge? Can US stocks maintain their rebound momentum? Let's discuss in the comments whether you stand with the "rate cut faction" or the "pause faction" ~