#数字货币市场回升 The winds of Wall Street have changed dramatically! JPMorgan's attitude has flipped in just one week.

Just a week ago, JPMorgan, which firmly asserted that there would be no interest rate cuts this year, suddenly changed its stance and predicted that the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates in December. This move caught many investors off guard. The trigger was the dovish signals released by New York Fed President Williams, but anyone with a bit of market experience can see through it—these large institutions have long had judgments on economic data, and choosing this moment to change their tune reveals a clear intention behind their expectation management.

Looking back at the market reaction when the employment data was released in September, BTC saw a significant pullback in a short period. Coincidence? Not necessarily. The strategy of institutions building positions through information asymmetry is no longer a novelty in this circle.

Interest rate cut expectations ≠ certainty of market rise

Opening the historical records reveals an interesting phenomenon: after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in 2019, BTC not only did not rise but instead experienced a nearly 20% pullback. This reveals a harsh market rule - when good news is fully anticipated and priced in advance, the actual implementation often becomes a signal for profit-taking.

The market's expectations for a rate cut in December have already been fully priced in. When the policy is officially announced, be wary of the space created by collective profit-taking. The risk of chasing the price higher is far greater than the returns from positioning in advance. What is the truly smart money doing? Keeping a close eye on on-chain data and observing the fund flows of large wallets is the real business.

The survival rule for retail investors: hoard coins instead of betting on direction.

JPMorgan's own economists also acknowledge that there is still uncertainty regarding the next interest rate meeting. In other words, the Federal Reserve may change its stance at any time. For ordinary investors with limited capital, the risk of betting in a single direction is too high.

A more prudent approach is to adopt the hedging strategies commonly used by institutions: core positions should be allocated to holding mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC in spot for the long term, while retaining some liquidity to respond to potential opportunities during sharp declines. The allocation value of mainstream assets like $ETH in a volatile market should not be overlooked.

The cooperation between the Federal Reserve and Wall Street has always been seamless. When everyone in the market is discussing the same expectation, it often means that most people have already taken the wrong side. The survival logic of the crypto market has never been about who makes more money, but rather about who can survive longer. Accumulate chips in a bear market and cash out in a bull market; make sure not to get this rhythm wrong.