The President of the New York Fed, Williams, has recently sent frequent dovish signals, causing the market to explode instantly—the probability of a rate cut in December skyrocketed from 29% a week ago to 84.9%. The speed of this expectation reversal is simply like a roller coaster.

The data aspect is indeed strong: in October, the US CPI remained flat month-on-month, and the core PCE is approaching the 2% target line, with inflationary pressures clearly retreating. However, on the other hand, the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.1%, reaching a new high in nearly two years, and the manufacturing PMI has contracted for 13 consecutive months. The signals of economic cooling are becoming increasingly evident. Williams’ remark that "current policy is a bit tight, and there is room for rate cuts" essentially laid bare the attitude of Powell's team.

What's even more severe is the flow of funds: JPMorgan data shows that investors' net long positions in U.S. Treasuries have surged to their highest point in nearly 15 years. The logic behind this move is straightforward—the high interest rate environment is unsustainable. The default rate on commercial real estate loans is already at its highest in a decade, and the cracks in the financial system are widening. Continuing to tough it out may trigger a chain reaction.

The Federal Reserve is now in a dilemma: the doves are focused on employment data and the risks of economic downturn, while the hawks are still worried about whether inflation will rebound. However, the market has already provided an answer with an 84.9% pricing. As the December meeting approaches, a 25 basis point cut is basically a done deal—both stabilizing the economy and relieving pressure on financial markets.

This policy game has been going on for several months, and in the end, one has to bow to the data. The recent accumulation actions of Ethereum whales clearly indicate a bet on this wave of macro liquidity release. A new round of global asset pricing reshuffling may already be on the way.