Bitcoin breaks through $91,000, intensifying the Bull vs Bear Battle under liquidation risk.

The Bitcoin market is caught in a critical technical showdown, on one side is the risk of long liquidations amounting to $2 billion, and on the other side is the market enthusiasm brought about by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin has returned above $91,000 today, marking a significant rebound from last Friday's low of $80,000. This volatility is driven by increasing market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rising sharply from 44% a week ago to around 85%.

Lower interest rates often boost "risk assets" such as Bitcoin by increasing liquidity and raising demand for high-yield alternatives.

01 Key price levels: The crossroads of market trends

The price of Bitcoin is at a critical technical crossroads.

According to the data, if Bitcoin falls below $86,547, the cumulative long position liquidation intensity on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach as high as $1.925 billion.

This figure is close to the 2.048 billion USD mentioned by users, and the slight difference may stem from the data update period.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin breaks through $95,563, the cumulative short liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach $685 million.

These data clearly outline the current danger zones in the market, and any breakout in either direction could trigger a chain liquidation reaction.

02 Technical Structure: The Bull vs Bear Battle of Support and Resistance

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is in a complex market environment.

The short-term support level is in the range of $86,700-$87,200, with stronger support at $83,000, while the recent low of $80,728 is an important reference.

In terms of resistance, $91,492 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement level) constitutes direct resistance, with higher resistance at $98,151 and $103,534.

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin is in the early stage of an upward trend on the 4-hour chart, suggesting to focus on buying on dips, with a stop loss set below 87,500.

03 Market Sentiment: The Bull vs Bear Battle of Factors

The bull vs bear battle of factors influencing Bitcoin's price trend is intensifying.

The bullish forces mainly come from the rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as well as the recent institutional move by the Texas government to purchase $5 million worth of Bitcoin at an average price of approximately $87,000.

At the same time, the bearish pressure is reflected in the emotional indicators that show the market is still in the "fear" zone, as well as the ongoing technical resistance.

Recent liquidation data also shows that in the past 24 hours, a total of 108,205 people were liquidated across the network, with a total amount of 276 million USD, of which short liquidations accounted for 199 million USD.

This indicates that the rebound has put tremendous pressure on the bears.

Future trend outlook: If Bitcoin wants to maintain its upward momentum, it must hold the support area of 86,700-87,200 USD and successfully break through the immediate resistance at 91,492 USD.

Once it breaks through $95,563, it may trigger a wave of short liquidations, pushing the price towards $98,151 or even higher.

If the support at $86,500 is lost, it may trigger a large-scale long position liquidation, causing the price to drop towards $83,000 or even as low as $80,728.

The result of this Bull vs Bear Battle will depend on the interaction between the market's expectations of changes in the Federal Reserve's policy and key technical levels. #十二月降息预测