#数字货币市场回升 Wall Street renowned analyst Tom Lee has recently adjusted his Bitcoin expectations. The strategist, who previously gained fame for accurately predicting the trends in the crypto market, has quietly revised his bold prediction of $250,000 by the end of the year – now he believes that breaking through $100,000 is a more realistic goal, "perhaps it could even refresh the historical high."

Truth be told, BTC has been really strong lately. Rebounding from a stage low of $80,000 to above $90,000, market sentiment has picked up significantly. But to double it again in the short term? That's a lot of difficulty. Tom Lee proposes an interesting statistical model: most of Bitcoin's gains throughout the year tend to be concentrated in ten key trading days, with the rest of the time moving sideways. Last year's astonishing annual increase of 52% was basically accomplished by that ten-day explosion.

The problem is—who can accurately predict when those crucial ten days will appear?

I personally suggest to remain cautiously optimistic. The predictions of these market influencers can serve as a reference dimension, but it is unwise to follow them blindly. Last year, analysts who were bearish at fifty thousand have changed their tune to bullish at one hundred thousand this year; who knows what their narrative will be in another two months. Currently, on-chain data shows that a significant amount of institutional funds continue to flow out in the high price range, and this "bullish talk, bearish action" contradictory signal is worth being alert to.

Friends in the retail market, if you want to heavily invest at this point in time, be sure to manage your risks well. Don't let the temporary market heat cloud your judgment, only to regret being trapped at the peak in the end.